The United States Senate remains locked in a critical standoff over government funding, intensifying a shutdown that has stretched into a record number of days. The immediate cause of the deadlock is a failure to reach a compromise on extending subsidies for the Affordable Care Act (ACA).
On Friday, a Republican stopgap measure intended to extend government funding through mid-December was rejected on a 53-43 vote, falling seven votes short of the 60 needed to advance the legislation. The bill notably excluded the ACA subsidy demands made by the Democrats.
The Health Care Sticking Point
Senate Democrats, led by Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, are holding firm on their demand that any funding deal include a one-year extension of ACA premium tax credits. These credits are enhanced subsidies that lower monthly health premiums for millions of people who purchase insurance through the Marketplace.
- Democratic Offer: Schumer offered to reopen the government immediately on Friday if the health care subsidies were extended simultaneously, stating, “All Republicans have to do is say yes.”
- Republican Rejection: Senate Majority Leader John Thune and Republicans rejected the proposal, insisting that negotiations on health care must take place after the government has been reopened. Thune suggested that the Democrats’ offer indicated they were “feeling the heat” but added, “I just don’t think it gets anywhere close to what we need to do here.”
Impact of Expiring ACA Subsidies
The enhanced ACA subsidies are currently set to expire at the end of the year (December 31, 2025). The expiration of these subsidies would significantly increase health insurance costs for millions of Americans:
- Premium Spike: If the enhanced tax credits are allowed to lapse, subsidized enrollees could face a 114% increase in what they pay for premiums, averaging an estimated $1,016 more per year.
- Coverage Loss: Experts warn that without the extension, as many as 4 million people could lose their health coverage over the next year.
- Eligibility Shift: The subsidies, which currently cap premium costs for households earning over 400% of the Federal Poverty Level (FPL), would revert to the original ACA rules, removing assistance for this high-income group entirely and significantly reducing aid for lower-income recipients.
Senate Dynamics and Next Steps
The Senate also failed to advance the GOP-backed Shutdown Fairness Act on a 53-43 vote. Three Democrats crossed party lines to vote against the measure: Senators Jon Ossoff (Georgia), Raphael Warnock (Georgia), and Ben Ray Lujan (New Mexico).
Current Party Breakdown:
- Senate Majority: Republicans hold the majority with 53 seats.
- Democratic Caucus: Democrats hold 47 seats (including two independents who caucus with them).
- House of Representatives: Republicans also hold the majority with 219 seats compared to the Democrats’ 213 seats. The Speaker of the House is Republican Mike Johnson.
Senate Majority Leader Thune confirmed that the Senate will return on Saturday at noon but noted it is still unclear if a vote on a compromise will be scheduled.