GOA, INDIA — The diplomatic freeze that characterized India-Canada relations for over two years has officially thawed. At the India Energy Week 2026 in Goa on Wednesday, January 28, Canadian Energy Minister Tim Hodgson and Indian Petroleum Minister Hardeep Singh Puri formally relaunched the Ministerial Energy Dialogue, signaling a pragmatic pivot toward “interest-driven engagement.”
Driven by the need to diversify beyond a tariff-heavy U.S. market under the Trump administration, both nations have signed a Joint Statement on Energy Cooperation that centers on hydrocarbons, nuclear fuel, and critical minerals.
1. Hydrocarbon Exchange: Crude, LNG, and Refined Fuels
Canada is moving to correct a massive trade imbalance in the energy sector.
- The Gap: Despite producing 6% of the world’s oil, Canada currently supplies less than 1% of India’s requirements.
- The Solution: With the Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) Pipeline now fully operational, Canada will scale up crude oil, LNG, and LPG exports to India.
- Reciprocity: In a “symbiotic” arrangement, India—the world’s fourth-largest refiner—will export high-value refined petroleum products back to Canada.
2. The Nuclear & Mineral “Strategic Pivot”
Beyond traditional oil and gas, the two nations are securing a “green” future.
- Uranium Deal: A 10-year, C$2.8 billion uranium supply deal is expected to be signed during Canadian PM Mark Carney’s visit in March. This will assist India in reaching its 100 GW nuclear capacity goal by 2047.
- Critical Minerals: India’s Oil India Ltd (OIL) is currently in talks with Canadian counterparts for off-take agreements and joint extraction of lithium and cobalt, essential for India’s massive EV and solar push.
- LNG Milestone: Canada’s first major LNG export plant, which began production in June 2025, is now eyeing India as a primary long-term buyer.
3. The Diplomatic Context: The “Carney Shift”
The reset follows a leadership transition in Ottawa, with Prime Minister Mark Carney moving away from the “hostile” rhetoric of the Justin Trudeau era.
- Economic Sovereignty: Minister Hodgson noted that Canada is “rewiring its economy” to ensure trade integration is no longer used for “coercion” (referring to US tariff threats).
- Trade Target: The two nations aim to jump from the current $30 billion bilateral trade to $50 billion by 2030.
Bilateral Trade Comparison: 2024 vs. 2030 (Target)
| Sector | 2024 (Actual) | 2030 (Projected) |
| Total Goods Trade | ~$13.3 Billion | $50 Billion |
| Oil/Energy Share | < 1% of Canada’s Exports | 10% – 15% Target |
| Nuclear Fuel | Spot purchases | 10-Year Fixed Contract |
| Status of FTA | Paused (Sept 2023) | CEPA Negotiations Relaunched |