New Delhi [India]: India is expected to receive above-normal rainfall during the 2025 southwest monsoon season, according to a long-range forecast issued by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Tuesday.
Speaking at a press conference, Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, Director General of Meteorology at the IMD, stated,
“The forecast for heavy rainfall during the southwest monsoon season is being issued today by the India Meteorological Department. Across the country, the seasonal rainfall from June to September is likely to be 105 per cent of the Long Period Average, with a model error of ±5 per cent.”
He explained that the country’s Long Period Average (LPA) for rainfall, based on data from 1971 to 2020, is 87 centimeters.
The IMD noted that the current atmospheric conditions resemble a La Niña phase, though El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral over the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
“The latest Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System indicates that neutral ENSO conditions are likely to continue during the monsoon season,” Mohapatra added.
According to the IMD’s probabilistic forecast, there is a 59 percent probability that India’s monsoon rainfall will fall in the “above-normal” or higher category, which is defined as more than 104 percent of the LPA.
This forecast was derived using the Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) technique, which incorporates several climate models based on April 2025 initial conditions. The MME approach has shown higher predictive accuracy for monsoon trends over India.
The forecast suggests most regions across the country will likely experience above-normal rainfall. However, some areas—particularly in Northwest India, Northeast India, and parts of the southern peninsula—may experience below-normal rainfall.
The IMD added that regions marked in white on the spatial distribution map indicate no dominant signal, meaning an equal likelihood of above-normal, normal, or below-normal rainfall.
Regarding ocean conditions, the IMD reported that neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions currently prevail, and these are expected to remain stable throughout the monsoon.
“The latest climate model forecast indicates that neutral IOD conditions are likely to continue during the southwest monsoon season,” the department noted.
Sea surface temperatures (SST) in both the Pacific and Indian Oceans are being closely monitored due to their significant influence on monsoon variability.
Here is the breakdown of the rainfall probability forecast:
- Deficient rainfall (<90% of LPA): 2%
- Below-normal rainfall (90–95% of LPA): 9%
- Normal rainfall (96–104% of LPA): 30%
- Above-normal rainfall (105–110% of LPA): 33%
- Excess rainfall (>110% of LPA): 26%
The IMD will release a more detailed and region-specific monsoon forecast in May.