China’s recent approval to construct the world’s largest hydropower project on the Brahmaputra River, known as the Yarlung Tsangpo in Tibet, has sparked serious concerns among experts and policymakers. Tibetan experts in exile have highlighted the project’s hydrological, ecological, seismic, and political risks for India and other South Asian nations.
Key Concerns Raised by Experts
1. Hydrological Implications for India
- Flood Risks:
During the summer, the dam’s management of water flow could exacerbate floods in India’s northeast, particularly Assam and Arunachal Pradesh, by releasing excess stored water. - Water Scarcity:
In the winter, when water flow naturally decreases, China’s dam could withhold water, worsening drought-like conditions in downstream regions.
2. Seismic Threats
- Himalayan Seismic Activity:
The Himalayan region is prone to earthquakes, and constructing a mega-dam increases the risk of seismic disturbances. - Catastrophic Failures:
A dam failure due to an earthquake could unleash catastrophic floods across downstream areas, devastating communities and infrastructure.
3. Political Leverage
- Strategic Use of Water Flow:
In times of strained India-China relations, China could weaponize the dam by altering water flow—causing floods or droughts as a coercive tactic. - Impact on Bilateral Relations:
The dam introduces an additional layer of tension to an already fraught India-China relationship, complicating negotiations on shared water resources.
4. Regional Ripple Effects
- South Asia’s Dependence on Tibetan Rivers:
Rivers originating in Tibet, such as the Brahmaputra, supply water to multiple South Asian nations. Changes in their flow can disrupt agriculture, ecosystems, and livelihoods across the region. - Call for Multilateral Action:
Experts like Dolma Tsering, Deputy Speaker of the Tibetan Parliament in Exile, stress the need for a collective stance from India and other South Asian nations.
Strategic Implications for India
India has previously expressed concerns about China’s dam projects on transboundary rivers, citing their potential to disrupt water availability and harm ecosystems. This new dam amplifies these fears:
- Security Concerns:
The dam’s proximity to India’s border gives China an upper hand in controlling the Brahmaputra’s flow, which could have national security implications. - Environmental Risks:
Unregulated water flow could erode soil, disrupt ecosystems, and threaten biodiversity in downstream areas. - Economic Impact:
Altered water flows may affect agriculture, hydropower generation, and fisheries, crucial for the livelihoods of millions in northeastern India.
Call for Collective Action
Tibetan and Indian experts are urging a unified South Asian response to China’s unilateral actions:
- Diplomatic Engagement:
Regional powers, including Bangladesh and Bhutan, could form a coalition to push for transparency and equitable water-sharing agreements with China. - International Oversight:
Organizations like the United Nations or World Bank could be leveraged to mediate and ensure adherence to international norms for transboundary rivers.
Conclusion
The construction of the world’s largest dam on the Brahmaputra by China is more than an engineering marvel—it’s a strategic and environmental challenge for South Asia. India and its neighbors must prioritize this issue, ensuring that their concerns about equitable water-sharing, environmental safety, and regional stability are addressed through multilateral diplomacy and robust internal policies.