Oslo, Norway: As the world awaits the announcement of the Nobel Peace Prize laureate, US President Donald Trump has aggressively campaigned for the honour, with members of his cabinet and the White House joining the push. While Trump has repeatedly stated that he “deserves” the prize for his foreign policy efforts, many longtime Nobel observers believe his chances of winning remain low.
The US President has been vocal about his perceived achievements, claiming to have “ended seven wars” and hinting at an eighth if his current peace plan for the Israel-Gaza conflict is accepted. Last month, he told UN delegates that “Everyone says that I should get the Nobel Peace Prize.”
However, analysts caution that high-profile nominations and self-promotion rarely align with the Norwegian Nobel Committee’s criteria.
Why Experts Believe Trump’s Chances are Low
According to a report by the Associated Press, the scepticism among Nobel veterans is rooted in the fundamental values the Committee seeks to uphold:
- Emphasis on Lasting Peace and Root Causes: The Nobel Committee prioritizes efforts that lead to sustained peace and address the core reasons for conflict. Historian Theo Zenou noted that there is a “huge difference between getting fighting to stop in the short term and resolving the root causes of the conflict,” suggesting Trump’s diplomatic wins may not yet be proven as lasting.
- Multilateralism and International Fraternity: Alfred Nobel’s will stipulates the prize should be for those who advance “fraternity between nations” and the promotion of peace congresses. Observers point to Trump’s general disregard for international and multilateral institutions, as well as his stance on major global issues, as working against him.
- Climate Change Stance: Zenou also explicitly stated that the Committee is unlikely to award the most prestigious prize to “someone who does not believe in climate change,” which many view as a critical long-term peace challenge.
- Avoiding Political Pressure: Nina Græger, Director of the Peace Research Institute Oslo, suggests that Trump’s outspoken and aggressive lobbying for the prize could actually backfire. The Committee strives to maintain its independence and would not want to be seen as giving in to political pressure. Græger concludes that Trump’s Nobel hopes remain “a long shot” as his general rhetoric “does not point in a peaceful direction.”
High-Profile Nominations
Despite the scepticism, the former President has been nominated multiple times since 2018 by politicians both in the US and abroad. His most recent public nomination, citing his role in brokering the 2020 Abraham Accords (which normalized relations between Israel and several Arab nations), came in December from US Representative Claudia Tenney (R-NY).
More recent endorsements, including those from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the Pakistani government, came after the February 1st deadline for the 2025 award, meaning they cannot influence the current selection.
The Norwegian Nobel Committee has also clarified that any potential influence from Trump’s most recent diplomatic efforts, such as the Israel-Gaza peace agreement which led to a pause in fighting and hostage/prisoner exchanges, would not affect the 2025 selection, as the deadline for nominations passed on January 31st.
Families of hostages and supporters, however, gathered in Tel Aviv’s Hostages Square on Thursday morning, chanting “Nobel Prize to Trump,” highlighting the perceived significance of his recent involvement in the conflict.
Trump has publicly preempted the Committee’s decision, claiming they will likely “give it to some guy who didn’t do a damn thing” instead of him, saying he expects they will “find a reason not to give it to me.”