China experienced significant challenges throughout 2024, both domestically and internationally. These difficulties have seemingly bolstered Chairman Xi Jinping’s resolve to assert the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) influence aggressively, leading to expectations of heightened global confrontations in 2025.
Sino-US Relations Under Trump’s Second Term
Donald Trump’s return to the White House is expected to redefine the already fraught US-China relationship. Since Trump’s election in November 2024, Beijing has engaged in provocative actions, including hacking the US Treasury Department and imposing sanctions on American firms.
Lyle Morris, Senior Fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute, outlined four key predictions for Sino-US relations in 2025:
- Rhetoric and Cooperation: China will attempt to reset ties by focusing on potential areas of collaboration but will adopt harsher rhetoric regarding issues like Taiwan and the South China Sea.
- Strategic Competition: The US will consolidate its view of China as its primary strategic competitor, keeping China at the forefront of trade and national security agendas.
- Limited Cooperation: While full resolution of differences is unlikely, discrete areas of collaboration, such as combating the fentanyl trade and enhancing military communication, may provide opportunities for dialogue.
- Diplomatic Stability: Active diplomacy will remain essential to maintaining stability, although China’s sensitivity to perceived slights could strain efforts.
Xi Jinping, now more prepared for a Trump presidency, is expected to employ a mix of retaliation, adaptation, and diversification in dealing with the US. China’s growing economic self-reliance contrasts with a divided and economically vulnerable America, potentially giving Beijing an upper hand in certain areas of engagement.
Military and Strategic Maneuvers
China’s assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific region continued to escalate in 2024:
- Taiwan and Japan: The Chinese military carried out large-scale naval drills aimed at blockading Taiwan and intercepting US reinforcements. Additionally, the number of Chinese government vessels encroaching on Japanese waters near the Senkaku Islands reached a record 1,351 in 2024.
- Undersea Sabotage: Chinese ships, like the Shunxing39, have been accused of sabotaging undersea cables, including those critical to Taiwan’s internet connectivity. Such incidents highlight Beijing’s gray-zone tactics to isolate Taiwan.
- South China Sea: The Philippines faced aggressive actions from China, with repeated clashes over maritime rights and Chinese Coast Guard activities, including spoofing automatic identification systems (AIS).
Technological advancements bolster China’s military ambitions. In December 2024, the PLA showcased groundbreaking developments, including sixth-generation aircraft and a new airborne early warning variant.
Human Rights and Political Control
Despite reduced global attention, China’s human rights abuses persist. The detention of Uyghurs in Xinjiang continues under the liuzhi system, with at least 218 known custody centers operating as of late 2024. A recent investigation suggests the actual number may be significantly higher, particularly in ethnic minority-dominated regions.
In Hong Kong, dissent has been effectively crushed, with ongoing prosecutions serving as a reminder of Beijing’s intolerance for opposition. The city’s population has shifted due to a steady influx of mainland Chinese immigrants, replacing those who fled the repressive regime.
Xi’s Challenges Within the CCP
Internally, corruption and political purges have destabilized the CCP. High-profile dismissals, including Foreign Minister Qin Gang and Defense Minister Li Shangfu, reflect ongoing internal strife. Anti-graft campaigns intensified in 2024, with 56 senior officials investigated—a record number. This internal discord may influence Xi’s military strategies, though experts argue corruption does not necessarily hinder combat effectiveness.
China’s Global Ambitions
China continues to challenge US dominance by promoting alternative initiatives such as the Global Data Security Initiative and the BRICS grouping. Its unwavering support for Russia, despite the Ukraine war, underscores Beijing’s commitment to undermining Western influence.
As Xi promotes his vision of a “community of common destiny,” China’s rhetoric often clashes with its aggressive actions, painting a stark picture of its ambitions.
Looking Ahead to 2025
With growing military capabilities, assertive diplomacy, and a focus on undermining US-led global systems, China is poised for a tumultuous year ahead. Its actions will likely heighten tensions with the US and its allies, while its domestic policies will continue to reflect an authoritarian grip on power.