In a move that marks the most significant structural change to the H-1B program in decades, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) announced on Tuesday, December 23, 2025, that it is officially replacing the random computerized lottery with a weighted, wage-level-based selection system.
The rule is designed to “protect American workers” by ensuring that the limited pool of 85,000 visas goes to the most highly skilled and highest-paid foreign professionals.
The “Weighted Odds”: How the New System Works
Under the new framework, an applicant’s chance of selection is directly tied to the salary offered by the employer, based on the Department of Labor’s (DOL) four-level prevailing wage system.
| Wage Level | Description | Number of Entries in Pool |
| Level IV | Highest: Fully skilled; senior-level expertise. | 4 Entries (Highest odds) |
| Level III | Experienced: Advanced skills/specialized roles. | 3 Entries |
| Level II | Qualified: Mid-career; moderate experience. | 2 Entries |
| Level I | Entry-Level: Beginning professionals; close supervision. | 1 Entry (Lowest odds) |
Key Date: The rule becomes effective on February 27, 2026, and will be used for the FY 2027 H-1B cap registration season (starting March 2026).
Triple Threat for Indian Professionals
Indian nationals, who typically receive over 70% of all H-1B visas, are facing a “triple squeeze” from recent Trump administration policies:
- Wage Selection: Entry-level and mid-career engineers—the bulk of Indian “on-site” workers—now have mathematically lower odds of being picked compared to senior architects.
- The $100,000 “Warrior” Fee: As per a September 2025 proclamation, new H-1B petitions for beneficiaries outside the US must be accompanied by a one-time $100,000 fee. While currently facing legal challenges, this fee threatens to price out smaller firms and staffing agencies.
- Vetting Backlogs: Since December 15, 2025, mandatory social media screening for all H-1B and H-4 applicants has caused chaos at US consulates in India. Thousands of interviews have been deferred from January 2026 to as late as September 2026, leaving many workers stranded in India.
Industry Impact: Offshore Shift?
Immigration experts and industry leaders suggest these hurdles could lead to a permanent shift in how the Indian IT sector operates:
- Offshoring: Companies like TCS, Infosys, and Wipro may expand Global Capability Centres (GCCs) within India rather than sending talent to the US.
- Alternative Destinations: Aspiring professionals are increasingly looking toward Canada and Germany, which have recently introduced more flexible “Points-Based” or “Opportunity Card” systems for tech talent.
- Cost Absorption: Large multinationals (Google, Meta, etc.) are expected to absorb the $100k fee for critical roles, further widening the gap between Big Tech and smaller startups.