Taipei [Taiwan], December 22: A recent unclassified war game conducted by the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) has found that increasing US nuclear capabilities would likely not deter China from using nuclear weapons in a conflict over Taiwan.
The findings, released in a report on Friday, challenge the current calls among policy experts to expand and modernize the US nuclear arsenal in response to China’s growing military power.The tabletop exercise, described as the first large-scale unclassified simulation of a potential nuclear war over Taiwan, examined scenarios in which nuclear weapons might be deployed. According to the report, the US’s nuclear capabilities, beyond ongoing modernization efforts, had little effect on Beijing’s willingness to use nuclear arms.
Instead, the exercise focused on the circumstances that might drive either side to resort to nuclear strikes, rather than whether nuclear weapons would be used at all.The CSIS study observed a recurring pattern where Chinese forces were most likely to consider using nuclear weapons when their defeat appeared imminent. The report suggested that China may be moving away from its no-first-use policy in critical conflicts, building on US concerns.
However, the researchers concluded that while favorable outcomes could be possible in some scenarios, “complete victory was unachievable” in situations involving nuclear warfare.In contrast to a similar CSIS-MIT simulation conducted last year, which excluded nuclear weapons and resulted in a decisive US victory, this latest war game produced more complex and devastating results.
Over 15 iterations of the exercise, Chinese forces retreated from Taiwan five times, with four of these scenarios unfolding without the use of nuclear weapons. In one iteration, the US used nuclear weapons for the first time. In another, Taiwan returned to the ‘status quo’ after the US deployed nuclear weapons against Chinese forces in Taiwan, following a Chinese nuclear strike on Taiwanese forces.Three of the scenarios ended in mutual annihilation, with both the US and China engaging in a nuclear exchange that decimated cities and caused millions of casualties.
In five iterations, China managed to establish a foothold in Taiwan after using nuclear weapons, while one exercise ended without a decisive result.The study urged the US to consider diplomatic measures to prevent nuclear escalation in a Taiwan conflict. Drawing parallels to the Cuban missile crisis, CSIS senior adviser Mark Cancian, co-author of the report, said that the US had previously withdrawn nuclear missiles from Turkey to provide the Soviet Union with a way out at little cost. He emphasized the need for early discussions with allies to identify potential concessions to offer China, warning that time may run out once nuclear weapons are used.
Co-author Eric Heginbotham, an MIT researcher, noted that the simulation did not support the idea of expanding the US tactical nuclear arsenal or developing new delivery systems.
In fact, the US team that used tactical nuclear weapons deployed fewer than 12, compared to the more than 600 nuclear weapons the US currently has. Heginbotham also pointed out that participants did not identify a need for new delivery capabilities, while Chinese teams did not perceive any limitations in the US’s ability to deploy nuclear weapons.