The deployment of the US Navy’s Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group to the US Central Command region has reignited intense speculation over Iran’s political future, with renewed focus on the safety and succession plans of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei amid escalating unrest and mounting international pressure.
The move comes at a time of heightened domestic turmoil in Iran, where protests against Khamenei’s rule have been met with a harsh security crackdown. The proximity of US naval forces to Iranian waters has prompted analysts, activists and former military officials to question whether Tehran is preparing for a worst-case scenario.
According to multiple media outlets tracking developments in Iran, along with open-source intelligence (OSINT) analysts, senior military officials have advised the ageing supreme leader to remain inside a highly fortified underground bunker in Lavizan, located in north-eastern Tehran, amid fears of possible US airstrikes.
“Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has moved into a special underground shelter in Tehran after senior military and security officials assessed an increased risk of a potential US attack,” Iran International reported, citing two sources close to the government.
The bunker is believed to be part of a fortified complex linked by underground tunnel systems designed to withstand aerial bombardment. Similar protective measures were reportedly taken during Israel’s Operation Rising Lion in June last year, suggesting that such contingency plans have been activated before during periods of elevated threat.
As fears of escalation grow, online discourse has increasingly shifted toward the question of succession, with speculation that Khamenei may have quietly initiated preparations to name a successor.
While Tehran has issued no official statement, several prominent figures are being viewed as potential contenders, including Mojtaba Khamenei, the supreme leader’s son; former judiciary chief Sadeq Larijani; senior cleric Alireza Arafi; and Hassan Khomeini, the grandson of Islamic Republic founder Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini.
Reports suggest that the powerful Assembly of Experts, which is constitutionally tasked with appointing the supreme leader, may have already narrowed the list to three undisclosed candidates.
Meanwhile, OSINTdefender, an open-source intelligence platform, cited reports indicating that US officials view Iran’s ruling establishment as increasingly fragile.
“President Donald J. Trump has received multiple intelligence reports indicating that the Iranian government’s position is weakening, possibly being at its weakest point since the Shah was overthrown during the 1979 Islamic Revolution,” OSINTdefender said in a post referencing unnamed sources who spoke to The New York Times.
The New York Times has separately reported that the regime’s brutal response to protests reflects internal anxiety, rather than confidence, within Iran’s leadership.
The USS Abraham Lincoln has now entered the region accompanied by several destroyers, including the USS Frank E. Petersen Jr., USS Spruance, and USS Michael Murphy, marking a significant escalation in US naval presence near Iran.
According to reports, Gulf nations have urged restraint, warning the Trump administration earlier this month that any military action against Iran could spiral into a broader regional conflict.