Five days after threatening India with additional tariffs on top of an existing 25% penalty for its trade with Russia, U.S. President Donald Trump has accused the nation of financing the “Russian War Machine” through its continued importation of Russian crude oil. However, an analysis of international energy trade data and U.S. domestic economic goals suggests that Trump’s motives may be more complex, potentially stemming from a desire to boost American oil profits rather than a direct opposition to Russian military funding.
The Hypocrisy of Ignoring China
Since the start of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in February 2022, global oil trade has undergone a significant transformation. While Russian oil exports to the European Union saw a dramatic decrease, plummeting from 3.5 million barrels per day in 2021 to just 0.4 million barrels per day in 2024, Russia’s overall oil exports remained relatively stable. This stability was largely due to a sharp increase in imports from both China and India.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) says that since 2022, China has imported more Russian oil than India has every year. Despite this, Trump has not yet made similar threats against China. His existing threats of a 30% tariff on China are not directly linked to Russian trade, and if he were to impose a penalty of more than 5% on India for its Russian trade, the total tariff burden on India could potentially be higher. This stark difference in approach raises questions about his true intentions.
Further evidence of this potential double standard was reported by the Wall Street Journal on August 3, which noted that “China is limiting the flow of critical minerals to Western defence manufacturers,” directly impacting the production of U.S. and European military equipment. This shows that Trump’s focus on India’s involvement in “financing the Russian War Machine” while completely disregarding China’s stronger financial and strategic impact may be more about defending American and European military interests than Russia’s.
India’s Role in Stabilizing Global Energy Markets
India and China’s choice to buy more Russian crude oil had a big effect on the energy market around the world. When European nations began reducing their reliance on Russian supplies, it created a void that could have led to a significant market disruption and a spike in global crude oil prices.
India’s official statement following Trump’s threat highlighted this very point: “India began importing from Russia because traditional supplies were diverted to Europe after the outbreak of the conflict. The United States at that time actively encouraged such imports by India for strengthening global energy markets stability.” Data from OPEC supports this, showing that Russia has managed to maintain its global share of crude oil exports even after the war began.
The Link to U.S. Shale Production
Beyond geopolitics, there may be a clear economic motive behind Trump’s actions. The United States has transitioned from being a net importer to a major exporter of petroleum, largely thanks to the shale gas revolution. Trump has long been a proponent of increasing U.S. shale production to maximize profits for the American petroleum industry.
However, the profitability of shale gas production is highly sensitive to crude oil prices, which must be above a certain threshold to make extraction economically viable. The current stable oil price environment threatens Trump’s promise of “drill baby drill.” By pressuring a major importer like India to stop buying Russian oil, Trump could be attempting to reduce global supply and drive up prices, thereby benefiting U.S. shale producers. A Wall Street Journal report in May noted that some of the largest U.S. producers were already planning to spend less and reduce the number of rigs, signalling a potential decline in shale production.
In this context, Trump’s attempts to force India to stop importing Russian oil and instead increase its energy purchases from the U.S. appear to be less about a statesmanlike effort to oppose Russia’s war and more about advancing American economic interests.