US President Donald Trump is once again making headlines for his famously unpredictable foreign policy, this time centered on India.
The latest twist came as Trump was traveling to Israel to mediate a ceasefire in Gaza. Speaking to reporters on the flight, he resurrected a sensational, unverified claim: that he single-handedly prevented a nuclear war between India and Pakistan back in May. The supposed secret weapon he used? Tariffs.
“I settled a few of the wars just based on tariffs. As an example, with India and with Pakistan, I said, ‘If you guys want to fight a war — and you have nuclear weapons! — I’m going to put big tariffs on you both, like 100%, 150, and 200%.’ (They said:) ‘No, no, no, don’t do that.’ I said, ‘I’m putting tariffs.’ I had that thing settled in 24 hours,” he asserted, noting that this was approximately the 50th time he’d made the claim.
The India-Pakistan Dispute: Fact vs. Fiction
The conflict Trump referenced was the escalation following India’s retaliatory military action, Operation Sindoor, launched in response to a terror attack in Kashmir. India has been unwavering in its position, maintaining that the decision for a ceasefire came through direct military channels, without any need for third-party mediation. However, Trump continues to pitch his intervention as a reason he should have received the Nobel Peace Prize.
The Modi Conundrum: A Personal Friend, a Trade Target
The contradictory nature of the Trump-India dynamic is stark.
Just two days before his public tariff threat and mediation claim, Trump sent a clear personal message of goodwill to India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi. US Ambassador-designate Sergio Gor delivered a framed photograph of the two leaders, complete with Trump’s handwritten message: “Mr Prime Minister, you are great!”
Yet, this personal admiration stands against aggressive policy actions:
- Massive Tariffs: The US has imposed a hefty 50% tariff on Indian goods. Half of this duty is specifically termed a “penalty” or “sanction” for Delhi’s continued purchase of Russian oil amid the war in Ukraine.
- The Russian Alignment: Trump recently slammed India and China as “primary funders” of Russia’s war and publicly stated, “We’ve lost India and Russia to China” after Modi met with Russia’s Vladimir Putin and China’s Xi Jinping at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit.
- H-1B Visa Crackdown: In another move hitting India’s crucial tech sector, Trump also imposed a crippling $100,000 fee for H-1B visas, effectively halting the program used primarily by Indian tech professionals.
Despite the pressure, the two leaders maintain an exchange of warmth. Trump called Modi to wish him a happy 75th birthday, and Modi praised Trump’s recent Gaza peace plan.
Trade Talks in Turmoil
This bizarre mix of compliments and sanctions has naturally complicated trade negotiations. While talks have resumed and are heading for a sixth round, US trade officials like Howard Lutnick and Peter Navarro remain aggressive, demanding India open its domestic markets.
India’s Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar has been equally firm, declaring “red lines” around protecting the country’s sensitive farm and dairy sectors.
For now, PM Modi has chosen a path of diplomatic restraint and economic focus, responding to US pressure by promoting “swadeshi” (made-in-India) goods while continuing to engage in trade talks aimed at stabilizing the “Comprehensive Global Strategic Partnership” both sides profess to value.