The tariff controversy that dominated global economic headlines through 2025 may lose steam in 2026, predicts Eurasia Group President Ian Bremmer. Speaking in an exclusive interview, Bremmer said US tariffs—though still significant—will likely be “overstated” as a concern this year.
Bremmer noted that while tariff measures were one of the “big, big stories in 2025”, they are expected to be “less of a story in 2026”, even though their impact remains meaningful.
Why Tariffs May Ease in 2026
When asked why he believes the tariff issue will calm down, Bremmer highlighted two key reasons:
1️⃣ Affordability Pressures in the US
He said the Trump administration understands that inflation and living costs are major domestic concerns.
“Affordability is a big issue in the US, and they know tariffs are a component of that… so there is more incentive to get the deals done quickly,” Bremmer explained.
2️⃣ Legal and Strategic Constraints
He pointed out that the upcoming US Supreme Court ruling on the IEPA (International Emergency Economic Powers Act) could restrict how aggressively tariffs can be used.
“The ruling will probably constrain Trump’s tariff capacity as president to a degree,” he said.
Additionally, he noted that the US faced retaliatory responses from China, which has also reshaped Washington’s strategy.
US-China Equation Improving
Bremmer also linked the shifting tariff stance to a more stable US-China détente expected in 2026.
“This is linked to the US-China detente, which we think will be more stable this year,” he said.
Meanwhile, despite easing tariffs, Bremmer said President Trump continues to push forward with the Donroe Doctrine, likely with “much more enthusiasm” in the coming months, as tariff numbers—though still high—decline from 2025 levels.