New Delhi: The southwest monsoon, India’s primary rain-bearing weather system, is progressing rapidly and is expected to cover most parts of northwest India, including Delhi, by June 25, well ahead of the usual timeline, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said.
This year, the monsoon made its earliest onset over the Indian mainland since 2009, reaching Kerala on May 24. The last time it arrived earlier was in 2009, when it reached on May 23.
Boosted by strong low-pressure systems over both the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal, the monsoon advanced swiftly, covering Mumbai, central Maharashtra, and the entire northeast by May 29.
However, between May 28 and June 10, the system stalled temporarily before regaining strength.
The delay in rainfall during early June led to extreme heatwave conditions in northwest and central India, especially after June 8-9, as temperatures surged in the absence of monsoon showers.
According to the IMD’s extended range forecast, the monsoon is now expected to reach the remaining areas of central and eastern India and parts of northwest India by June 18. It is further expected to cover most of northwest India, including Delhi, between June 19 and June 25.
An IMD official stated that Delhi is likely to witness monsoon rains by June 22-23, ahead of its usual onset date of June 27.
Meteorologists, however, caution that monsoon onset dates do not directly correlate with total seasonal rainfall. The timing of monsoon in one region, such as Kerala or Mumbai, does not necessarily reflect how it will progress across other parts of the country.
The IMD had earlier projected that India is likely to receive 106% of the long-period average (LPA) rainfall of 87 cm during the June–September season. Rainfall in the range of 96% to 104% of this average is classified as “normal”.
According to the forecast:
- Above-normal rainfall is expected in most regions of India.
- Below-normal rainfall may occur in Ladakh, nearby areas of Himachal Pradesh, parts of the northeast, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, and Odisha.
- Some isolated areas in Punjab, Haryana, Kerala, and Tamil Nadu may also record lower-than-average rainfall.
The monsoon is crucial for India’s agricultural sector, which supports around 42% of the population and contributes approximately 18.2% to the national GDP. It is also essential for replenishing reservoirs used for drinking water and power generation.