Not long ago viewed as a rapidly rising military force in Africa, Russia is now reportedly struggling to maintain its strategic and political footprint on the continent, with its new official military body failing to replicate the success of its controversial predecessor.
The Kremlin’s new state-backed military force, the Africa Corps, has been unable to achieve the same level of financial gain and political leverage that the private Wagner Group mercenary outfit once commanded. This unraveling began shortly after the dramatic events of 2023, when Wagner’s founder, Yevgeny Prigozhin, led a short-lived armed rebellion against Russian President Vladimir Putin and was later killed in a mysterious plane crash, an incident where an explosive device is believed to have blown off the wing of his jet at 28,000 feet.
Senior U.S. military officials have confirmed the deepening cracks in Russia’s African strategy. “They’re starting to ask for help—the Malians in particular,” said one official, suggesting that assistance would most likely be in the form of military training, indicating a significant reversal in fortunes for one of Russia’s key partners on the continent.
The Failure to Replace Wagner
The shift from the autonomous Wagner Group, which operated with plausible deniability, to the Ministry of Defense-controlled Africa Corps has been fraught with difficulties and setbacks in key operational theaters:
- Mali Withdrawal: The Wagner mercenaries, who first arrived in Mali in late 2021, failed to win the fight against insurgents, despite the Malian government reportedly paying $10 million a month for their services. An investigation by The Sentry, an anti-corruption advocacy group, concluded that the Wagner mission was a “fiasco” long before the Africa Corps arrived. Wagner’s brutal and uncoordinated raids often targeted civilian settlements, which “created chaos and fear within the Malian military hierarchy,” deterred informants, and ironically created new recruitment opportunities for jihadists. Furthermore, the group failed to secure lucrative natural resource deals, such as a major gold deposit, because the areas were too unsafe to operate in. Wagner announced its withdrawal from Mali in June 2025, leaving the Africa Corps to take over operations for a regime that had celebrated the 2022 withdrawal of French troops.
- The Africa Corps’ Setback: Despite the official transition, the Africa Corps immediately suffered a major defeat. Just over a week after taking over, a convoy of Africa Corps and Malian fighters drove into a devastating ambush in the Saharan north by Tuareg rebels. According to European officials, the attack destroyed approximately half of the 40 armored vehicles in the convoy and resulted in dozens of casualties.
- The Central African Republic (CAR) Impasse: Russia is actively pressuring President Faustin-Archange Touadéra of the CAR to replace his existing agreement with the remnants of Wagner with a cash contract with the Africa Corps. Wagner had historically secured access to valuable gold and diamond resources in exchange for its services, including providing presidential bodyguards. The new Russia-backed structure, however, is demanding the government replace the mineral-for-security arrangement with cash payments running into millions of dollars, which the cash-strapped CAR government is reportedly reluctant to accept.
The sudden shift in Russian policy has exposed the vulnerabilities of its African partners, who initially embraced Russian security assistance as an alternative to what they perceived as ineffective and neo-colonial Western intervention. With the Malians now reportedly seeking aid elsewhere, the Kremlin is realizing that its new official security apparatus lacks the deep connections, operational ruthlessness, and profitable business model that made Prigozhin’s Wagner Group such a successful—and disruptive—force across the continent.