LONDON/SYDNEY – The global mining landscape is on the verge of its most significant transformation in history as Rio Tinto Group and Glencore Plc confirmed on Thursday, January 8, 2026, that they have restarted preliminary talks for a massive business combination.
The potential deal, first reported by the Financial Times, would create a new world leader in mining with a combined enterprise value exceeding $260 billion, leapfrogging the current industry leader, BHP Group.
The Deal: A “Court-Sanctioned” Takeover
The discussions center on an all-share transaction where Rio Tinto would acquire Glencore.
- The Structure: According to separate statements, any merger would likely be executed through a court-sanctioned scheme of arrangement.
- The PUSU Deadline: Under UK takeover rules, Rio Tinto now has a “Put Up or Shut Up” (PUSU) deadline of 5:00 PM (London time) on February 5, 2026, to either announce a firm intention to make an offer or walk away for at least six months.
- Valuation: Rio Tinto currently holds a market capitalization of approximately $142 billion (£101 billion), while Glencore is valued at roughly $65 billion (£48.8 billion).
Why Now? The Copper Rush
The primary driver for the merger is the surging demand for copper, essential for the global energy transition, artificial intelligence infrastructure, and electric vehicle production.
- Copper Dominance: A combined entity would rival BHP as the world’s largest copper producer. Glencore aims to produce 1.6 million tonnes of copper annually by 2035, while Rio Tinto is currently ramping up its massive Oyu Tolgoi mine in Mongolia.
- Market Prices: Copper prices recently hit record highs above $13,000 a ton, fueled by supply shortages and anticipation of US trade policy shifts.
Strategic Challenges: The “Coal Problem”
While the copper synergy is obvious, significant hurdles remain:
- Coal Assets: Glencore is a global leader in coal shipping. Rio Tinto fully exited the coal business in 2018. Analysts suggest Glencore’s recent move to consolidate its coal operations into an Australian subsidiary may be a precursor to a divestment or spin-off to satisfy Rio’s ESG-focused investors.
- Leadership Shift: The talks are being spearheaded by Rio’s new CEO, Simon Trott, who took the helm in August 2025. Unlike his predecessor Jakob Stausholm—who rejected Glencore’s approach in 2024—Trott is seen as more open to large-scale M&A to lean out the company and focus on growth metals.
- Culture Clash: Rio Tinto is known for its engineering-led, cautious culture, whereas Glencore has its roots in aggressive commodity trading.
Market Reaction (Jan 9, 2026)
The news triggered varied reactions across global markets:
- Glencore (New York): ADRs surged 8.8% on the news of the buyout potential.
- Rio Tinto (Sydney): Shares fell 6.6% as investors weighed the complexity of the deal and the potential for a high premium.