The Southwest Monsoon season officially ended on September 30, but post-monsoon rains are continuing to affect several parts of India. The country is now transitioning into the season for the Northeast Monsoon, which is expected to bring heavy rainfall to the southern peninsular states.
Weather Systems Driving Current Conditions
The current weather activity is being driven by multiple atmospheric circulations across the region:
- Northeast Monsoon Onset: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts that the Northeast Monsoon rainfall activity is likely to commence over the south east peninsular region. This shift is marked by the setting in of easterly and northeasterly winds over southern peninsular India and the south and adjoining central Bay of Bengal.
- Cyclonic Circulations: Several upper air cyclonic circulations (UACs) are currently active:
- One UAC lies over south Bangladesh and neighborhoods.
- Another UAC is positioned over Gangetic West Bengal & Jharkhand.
- A third UAC is over the westcentral Arabian Sea.
- Low-Pressure Formation Alert: An important system is a UAC over the southwest Bay of Bengal and adjoining Indian Equatorial Ocean, which is likely to move west-northwestwards toward the Comorin area. Under its influence, a low-pressure area is likely to form over the southeast Arabian Sea and adjoining Lakshadweep area off the Kerala-south Karnataka coasts around October 19.
🌧️ Rainfall and Thunderstorm Forecast
The IMD has warned of enhanced rainfall activity, primarily impacting the southern states over the coming week:
| Region | Forecasted Activity | Duration |
| Kerala and Tamil Nadu | Enhanced rainfall activity with isolated heavy rain likely to continue. | Next 7 days (until October 21) |
| Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Mahe | Light to moderate rain/thunderstorm with isolated heavy rainfall. | Till October 20 |
| South Interior Karnataka, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Yanam and Rayalaseema | Light to moderate rain/thunderstorm with isolated heavy rainfall. | Till October 16 |
| Lakshadweep | Light to moderate rain/thunderstorm. | During October 16 to 18 |
| Maharashtra & Goa | Thunderstorms with lightning likely over Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada, Konkan and Goa. | Madhya Maharashtra: October 14 to 17; Marathwada, Konkan & Goa: Till October 17 |
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🌡️ Temperature Outlook for Northwest India
In contrast to the heavy rain in the south, the northern plains will experience cooler weather:
- Temperatures will continue to remain marginally cooler than normal over northwest India.
- Mahesh Palawat, Vice President of climate and meteorology at Skymet Weather, stated that no intense western disturbance is immediately expected. As such, temperatures may remain slightly below normal and are expected to continue to drop gradually.