The 2020 Bihar Legislative Assembly election delivered one of the state’s tightest and most fascinating political verdicts in recent memory. The incumbent National Democratic Alliance (NDA), comprising the Janata Dal (United) (JDU), the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), and smaller allies, secured a narrow victory with 125 seats in the 243-member assembly, successfully forming the government. They were followed closely by the opposition Mahagathbandhan (MGB) or Grand Alliance, led by the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and Congress, which won 110 seats.
What made this election truly remarkable was the razor-thin margin separating the two main alliances. The NDA garnered a vote share of 37.26%, only 0.03 percentage points more than the MGB’s 37.23%. This near-identical vote share underscored a deeply polarized and competitive electoral contest where every single vote counted.
Single-Party Tally and the Shift in Power Dynamics
While the NDA alliance emerged victorious, the results painted a new picture of the power balance within the alliance:
- RJD emerged as the single-largest party with 75 seats.
- BJP surpassed JDU to become the dominant partner in the NDA, securing 74 seats (a significant gain from its 53 seats in 2015).
- JDU, led by Nitish Kumar, saw a major drop to 43 seats (down from 71 in 2015).
This shift meant that while Nitish Kumar remained the Chief Minister, his party’s diminished strength fundamentally altered the internal dynamic of the ruling coalition.
The Critical Role of Caste and Community Voting Patterns
The election reaffirmed the central role of caste and community arithmetic in Bihar politics, although not in a straightforward manner. Post-poll surveys, such as those conducted by Lokniti-CSDS, highlighted two major competing consolidations:
- Mahagathbandhan’s Core: The MGB successfully consolidated its traditional base, with nearly 9 out of 10 Yadavs and roughly three-fourths of Muslims voting for the alliance. This powerful ‘M-Y’ (Muslim-Yadav) coalition proved to be the bedrock of the RJD’s performance.
- NDA’s Winning Social Coalition: The NDA’s victory was largely built on a successful counter-consolidation. They secured overwhelming support from upper castes, the loyalty of the Kurmi-Koeri (Luv-Kush) communities (JDU’s traditional base), and, crucially, a majority of the Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs). Estimates suggest the NDA secured nearly three-fifths of the EBC vote.
- The ‘Swing’ Factor of Dalits: The Dalit vote proved to be a divided and swinging segment, which ultimately favoured the NDA in the final phase of the polls, contributing to their slim victory.
Beyond Caste: Unemployment and the Women’s Factor
While caste was a key driver, the election was also fought on pressing socio-economic issues, which drove significant voting trends:
- Unemployment vs. Development: The MGB, under Tejashwi Yadav, ran a spirited campaign centered on jobs and unemployment, which was cited as the single most important issue by a large section of the electorate (around 21%). However, the NDA successfully leveraged the theme of development and the performance of the incumbent government, which was cited as the most important issue by an even larger portion of voters (around 37%).
- The Gender Divide: The women’s vote emerged as a critical factor that favoured the NDA. Due to the perceived success of various social sector and welfare schemes, including the liquor prohibition policy, women voters showed a stronger loyalty to the NDA than their male counterparts, with the advantage being particularly noticeable among upper-caste, Kurmi, Koeri, and EBC women.
The Impact of ‘Spoilers’ and Last-Minute Decisions
The unexpected underperformance of the JDU was partially attributed to the presence of the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP), led by Chirag Paswan. The LJP, though winning only 1 seat, contested aggressively against JDU candidates, reportedly acting as a ‘spoiler’ and cutting into the JDU’s vote share in multiple constituencies.
Furthermore, post-poll analysis indicated a substantive last-minute swing in favour of the NDA. A significant portion of respondents claimed they decided their vote only on the day of voting, and nearly half of these last-minute deciders ultimately voted for an NDA candidate, proving decisive in the close contest.