Prime Minister Narendra Modi is going to China for the first time since 2018 to go to the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Summit. This is a big step in normalizing the tense relationship between the two countries. The summit will take place in Tianjin on August 31 and September 1. It will be the first high-level visit since a tense military stalemate along the Line of Actual Control (LAC).
The Prime Minister is going to China for the SCO Summit, which is part of a bigger diplomatic journey that will also include a visit to Japan for the annual bilateral summit with Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba.
In 2018, Modi went to China for an informal summit with President Xi Jinping in Wuhan in April and the SCO Summit in Qingdao in June. After that, Xi went to India in 2019. But just a few months after Xi’s tour, the two countries’ relationship hit its lowest point in 60 years, with fights and violent battles in the Ladakh section of the LAC in 2020. The Galwan Valley fights in June of that year killed 20 Indian soldiers and at least four Chinese soldiers.
On October 21, 2024, an agreement was made to end the LAC conflict. Two days hence, Modi and Xi met in Kazan, Russia. They pledged to bring back several ways to normalize relations and deal with the long-standing border conflict during that meeting.
Modi’s trip to China soon could lead to a meeting with President Xi Jinping. This conference could be a good place to talk about what to do next to fully normalize relations, such as lowering tensions on the LAC, starting direct flights again, reopening border commerce points, and starting people-to-people exchanges again.
For the past few months, diplomats have been working on the border issue. They have met with foreign and defense ministers, top diplomats, and the Special Representatives, National Security Adviser Ajit Doval and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi. As a result of these meetings, some steps have been taken to develop trust, such as the restart of the Kailash Mansarovar Yatra pilgrimage and the reissuance of tourist visas for Chinese citizens.
India is still worried about what China is doing, even though things are getting better. For example, China is building a huge hydropower project on the upper reaches of the Brahmaputra River and is actively helping Pakistan during recent battles. India has also complained about China’s limits on the export of rare earth metals and fertilizers. When External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar met with Wang Yi in July, he stressed the importance of building on “good progress” by dealing with border concerns and avoiding “restrictive trade measures.”
There is some uncertainty about the scheduled trip to Japan because of political pressure on Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba to step down after three consecutive election losses. Even though Ishiba has refused to resign, people are watching his political future closely. The meeting between Modi and Ishiba is scheduled to be about trade, security, and the state of affairs in the Indo-Pacific.