The India Meteorological Department (IMD) said that the monsoon trough is moving slowly from its current location at the base of the Himalayas to its typical location. This change is predicted to bring a lot of rain to northwest India during the coming week. This change was a big reason why Delhi saw such heavy rain on Saturday.
M. Mohapatra, the Director General of the IMD, said that this weather pattern, together with a cyclonic circulation over Uttar Pradesh, would deliver heavy to very heavy rain to Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh for the next seven days.
There may be a short break in the rain for the hill states, but they are getting ready for more. The IMD says that another cyclonic circulation is predicted to emerge over the Bay of Bengal around August 12–13. This will relocate the monsoon trough south of where it usually is, which will temporarily lower the amount of rain that falls on the northern hills.
There are a lot of atmospheric disturbances going on right now, making the weather complicated. The monsoon trough is near its usual position at mean sea level. There is also a cyclonic circulation in the upper air above western Uttar Pradesh, one over south Bihar and nearby north Jharkhand, and a distinct trough that goes from Gujarat to western Uttar Pradesh.
The IMD’s forecast says that throughout the next week, heavy to very heavy rain will be falling in many places, such as sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim, Bihar, Assam, Meghalaya, and Arunachal Pradesh. On the other hand, central India and Rajasthan are predicted to see less rain for the next three to four days.
Here are some particular forecasts for the week:
Heavy rain is anticipated to fall in some areas on August 10 and 15 in Himachal Pradesh; until August 11 in Uttarakhand; on August 10 in Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, and Delhi; on August 10, 14, and 15 in East Uttar Pradesh; on August 10, 12, and 15 in West Uttar Pradesh; and on August 15 in East Rajasthan.
There will be a lot of rain in Jammu and Kashmir from August 13 to 15, in Himachal Pradesh from August 11 to 14, in Uttarakhand on August 10, 11, and 14, in West Uttar Pradesh from August 13 to 14, and in East Uttar Pradesh from August 12 to 13.
Around August 13, a low-pressure region is also predicted to emerge over the northwest and nearby west-central Bay of Bengal. This could affect the monsoon’s path.