The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecasted above-normal rainfall for central India, including Maharashtra, throughout October due to a delayed withdrawal of the southwest monsoon. The key factor stalling the monsoon’s exit is the development of a low-pressure system in the Bay of Bengal.
Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, Director General of the IMD, announced the monthly probabilistic forecast for October, noting that there are “no favourable conditions for further withdrawal for at least a week.” This means central India and other parts of the country will continue to witness rainfall activity.
Rainfall and Temperature Outlook
The forecast indicates that rainfall averaged over most parts of the country will be above normal, with exceptions in Jammu and Kashmir, parts of northwest India, and isolated pockets in peninsular India.
- Maharashtra: The IMD’s map places Maharashtra in the blue zone, signifying above-normal rainfall. Specific areas like Konkan and Goa, central Maharashtra, and Vidarbha are even likely to record “excess” rainfall.
- Caution: A senior IMD scientist from Pune cautioned that an above-normal forecast does not guarantee consistent rain all month. “Variations are expected,” the official said, noting that even a single weather system could bring enough rain to surpass the monthly average. The IMD expects two systems to form in the next 15 days.
- Temperature: Maximum temperatures are likely to remain below normal across most regions, while minimum temperatures are expected to be normal to above normal.
Early Winter Indication
Regarding the upcoming winter, Mohapatra mentioned that there are chances of La Niña conditions persisting for some time after October. La Niña is often associated with below-normal temperatures. However, he clarified that according to the IMD’s official definition, the core winter season is in January and February, and it’s too early to predict conditions for those months.