The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) has finalized its seat-sharing arrangement for the forthcoming 2025 Bihar Assembly Election, officially establishing the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Janata Dal (United) [JD(U)] as equal partners. Both parties have agreed to contest 101 seats each out of the 243-member assembly, a move that requires a “climbdown” from the numbers they contested in the previous election.
In the 2020 Assembly polls, the JD(U) contested 115 seats, while the BJP fought on 110. The reduction in their respective share is largely attributed to the need to accommodate key allies, notably Chirag Paswan’s LJP(RV), which has been allocated 29 seats, and other partners like Hindustani Awam Morcha (S) and Rashtriya Lok Morcha.
The Evolution of the Partnership: A Story of Strike Rates
The decision to allocate equal numbers is more than mere arithmetic; it reflects a profound shift in the balance of power within the decades-old partnership, driven by diverging electoral performances.
A Look at the Strike Rates (Seats Won vs. Seats Contested):
| Year | Alliance | Party | Seats Contested | Seats Won | Strike Rate |
| 2010 | NDA | JD(U) | 141 | 115 | 82% |
| NDA | BJP | 102 | 91 | 89% | |
| 2015 | Mahagathbandhan | JD(U) | 101 | 71 | 70% |
| NDA | BJP | 157 | 53 | 34% | |
| 2020 | NDA | BJP | 110 | 74 | 68% |
| NDA | JD(U) | 115 | 43 | <38% |
Export to Sheets
- 2010 Dominance: When the NDA last contested together before the 2015 split, the JD(U) was the dominant partner, contesting 141 seats. While the JD(U) maintained an 82% strike rate, the BJP was marginally ahead with a striking 89% win rate on the 102 seats it contested.
- The 2015 Anomaly: In 2015, the parties were in rival camps. The JD(U), aligned with the RJD, boasted a robust 70% strike rate. The BJP, contesting a large 157 seats, saw its strike rate plummet to 34% in a losing effort for the diminished NDA.
- The 2020 Reversal: When the NDA reunited, the roles were clearly shifting. While Chief Minister Nitish Kumar was given seniority, his JD(U) saw its strike rate collapse to below 38% (winning only 43 of 115 seats), a sharp drop from its 2015 performance. Concurrently, the BJP’s revival was evident, as it maintained an impressive 68% strike rate, winning 74 of the 110 seats it contested.
Political Implications for Nitish Kumar
Despite leading the state as Chief Minister for two decades, Nitish Kumar’s personal strength has failed to consistently translate into matching numbers for his JD(U) in recent polls, a fact starkly highlighted by the seat allocation.
While the BJP continued to grant him seniority and the top post even in 2020—a political decision often attributed to respecting his experience and his willingness to switch sides—the equal seat share underscores the BJP’s growing electoral confidence and leverage over its key partner. The move has inevitably fueled internal political discussion that, should the NDA win the 2025 election, Nitish Kumar may eventually be asked to make way for a younger leader from the BJP ranks.