Former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro has indicated he plans to throw his support behind his eldest son, Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, as a presidential candidate for the 2026 election, according to his political party. The development sent ripples through local financial markets on Friday.
Valdemar Costa Neto, head of Bolsonaro’s right-wing Liberal Party, told Reuters that he had been informed by Flavio himself that the former president had “ratified his candidacy.”
A separate report by CNN Brasil, citing unnamed sources, claimed that Bolsonaro expressed his backing for Flavio during a visit to the federal police headquarters in Brasília, where he is currently serving his sentence for plotting a coup following the 2022 presidential election.
The political shockwave quickly impacted markets: the Brazilian real weakened by around 2% against the U.S. dollar, and the Bovespa benchmark stock index dropped 3% on Friday.
Analysts say the market reaction is tied to investor expectations. Many had anticipated Bolsonaro would endorse a more market-friendly candidate, such as São Paulo Governor Tarcisio de Freitas, a former minister under Bolsonaro who is viewed as having stronger executive credentials to challenge incumbent President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.
“The market sees Flavio as a weaker candidate than Tarcisio in a race against Lula,”
said Laís Costa, analyst at Empiricus Research.
Bolsonaro himself has been barred from holding public office since June 2023, when Brazil’s federal electoral court (TSE) ruled against him for his actions during the 2022 election.
In September 2024, he was sentenced to 27 years and three months in prison for orchestrating an attempted coup after losing the presidential race to Lula.