Dubai: Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is facing growing isolation and uncertainty after a series of Israeli airstrikes killed several of his most trusted military and security advisers, creating a leadership vacuum and raising the risk of strategic miscalculations.
According to five sources familiar with his decision-making, the loss of his core Revolutionary Guards commanders has left major gaps in the tightly controlled structure that Khamenei has built over decades. Those killed include Guards commander Hossein Salami, aerospace chief Amir Ali Hajizadeh, and intelligence head Mohammad Kazemi—all key players in shaping Iran’s military doctrine and advising Khamenei directly.
“This is extremely dangerous,” said one individual who regularly attends meetings with Khamenei, warning of increased chances of missteps on national defence and stability issues.
The deaths have not only diminished the Islamic Republic’s strategic command but have also complicated Tehran’s position amid an escalating confrontation with Israel, internal economic pressures, and regional instability.
A Deepening Crisis at the Top
Khamenei, now 86, is Iran’s ultimate authority—with sweeping powers over the military, judiciary, and foreign policy. Known for his cautious but stubborn leadership, he depends on a core advisory group of about 15–20 loyalists, mostly from the Revolutionary Guards and political-religious elites.
These advisers meet ad hoc, often summoned to Khamenei’s Tehran compound for major decisions. But with many now dead, decision-making risks becoming slower, fragmented, and vulnerable to error, say insiders.
Rise of Mojtaba Khamenei
Stepping into this void is Mojtaba Khamenei, the Supreme Leader’s influential son and a mid-ranking cleric. Over the past two decades, Mojtaba has quietly consolidated power, building strong ties with the Revolutionary Guards and becoming a central coordinator among Iran’s political and military factions.
He is increasingly viewed as a possible successor to his father, though Iran’s opaque power structure makes any transition uncertain. Mojtaba’s involvement in strategic decisions has intensified in recent months, signaling a shift in the balance of influence within Khamenei’s shrinking inner circle.
Trusted Insiders Still Standing
Despite the high-profile losses, several key figures remain active in advising the Supreme Leader, including:
- Ali Asghar Hejazi – deputy of political security affairs and Iran’s most powerful intelligence figure.
- Mohammad Golpayegani – head of the Supreme Leader’s office.
- Former foreign ministers Ali Akbar Velayati and Kamal Kharazi.
- Ex-parliament speaker Ali Larijani.
They continue to offer guidance on diplomacy and domestic policies, including Iran’s nuclear negotiations.
Fallout Across the ‘Axis of Resistance’
The impact of Israel’s campaign extends beyond Iran. Two key regional allies—Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad—have been removed from the equation. Nasrallah, a close confidant of Khamenei, was killed in an Israeli airstrike in September, while Assad was overthrown by rebel forces in December, weakening Iran’s regional posture.
The Revolutionary Guards, which report directly to Khamenei and not the elected government, remain the backbone of Iran’s military and ideological power, but the sudden depletion of its top brass could destabilize its command structure.
As Ayatollah Khamenei faces one of the gravest crises of his 35-year rule, insiders warn that strategic clarity may give way to reactive decision-making. The stakes are high: an intensifying war with Israel, growing internal unrest due to economic strain, and the pressure of preparing a succession plan that may soon become urgent.