A new assessment from the UK-based Henry Jackson Society says that the Islamic Republic of Iran is about to fall apart and is in great danger of a civil war. The results come after a number of major defeats for the regime, such as a 12-day war with the US and Israel that did a lot of damage to its nuclear program.
The report, “Regime Collapse in Iran: A Necessity for Regional Stability?” says that if the current regime falls, there could be a “vacuum of governance” that could lead to a civil war, which must be avoided “at all costs.” It says that any change of power should be “quick and painless” to avoid widespread unrest.
The study goes into depth about how US and Israeli troops were able to successfully hit Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile sites and kill high-ranking officials of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) during the recent fight from June 13 to June 24. The Trump administration approved these strikes, which are considered as a big change from prior “de-escalation” measures.
The study says that the military losses have not only messed up Iran’s strategic plans, but they have also hurt the cult of personality around Supreme Leader Ali Hosseini Khamenei. Even Nevertheless, the regime is still “wedded to the Iranian revolution” and wants to rebuild its nuclear program and “export terrorism,” which is still a threat to the West.
Recent information from the United Nations backs up what the study says. The UN has accused Tehran of employing the death sentence as a “tool of state intimidation” and killing at least 841 individuals this year. The UN’s report shows that there was a “major increase in executions” in the first half of 2025, with a lot of them targeting ethnic minorities and migrants.