New Delhi [India]: The widening of India’s merchandise trade deficit can be attributed to a decline in exports and a marginal rise in imports amid prevailing global economic uncertainty.
India’s Trade Deficit Widens to $22.99 Billion in January 2025 📉
🔹 Key Figures:
- Trade Deficit: $22.99B (up from $21.94B in Dec 2024, $16.56B in Jan 2024)
- Exports: $36B (-$2B MoM) 📉
- Imports: $59.42B (-$0.5B MoM)
- Gold Imports: 30.8T (down from 40T in Dec, 100T in Nov)
- Oil Prices: $78.35/barrel (up from $73.13 in Dec)
📌 Why Did the Deficit Widen?
✔ Declining Exports amid global uncertainty
✔ Marginal Import Increase despite oil & gold moderation
✔ Non-Oil Non-Gold (NONG) Deficit Expansion
💡 Services Trade Provides Relief:
- Services Trade Surplus: $20.33B (up from $19.08B in Dec, $16.17B in Jan 2024)
- The services sector remains resilient, supporting the Current Account Balance (C/A) for FY25
🔮 Outlook & Risks:
⚠ Geopolitical & Tariff Risks may impact trade trends
⚠ Commodity Prices (esp. oil) will be a key factor
⚠ CAD Projection (1.2% of GDP for FY25) faces downside risks
🔍 Looking Ahead:
✔ Seasonal trends may narrow the NONG deficit 📊
✔ Services trade growth could help offset merchandise trade losses
✔ Stable commodity prices may improve overall trade balance