NEW DELHI – The India Meteorological Department (IMD) said that India’s total monsoon rain surplus has dropped a lot in the first two weeks of August. So far this month, the country has gotten the same amount of monsoon rain as usual. This is a big change from the 6.4% more rain that was reported at the end of July. This change shows that the monsoon is quite unpredictable, with its patterns getting more and more unequal. Many scientists say this is because of the climate issue.
India had gotten 561.8 mm of rain by August 12, which is only 0.1 mm less than the long-term average (LPA) of 561.9 mm. But this national average hides big differences between regions. Northwest India has gotten 17% more rain than it needs, while the east and northeast regions have gotten 18% less. As of August 12, central India had a 3% surplus and southern India had a 0% surplus. This is also true for central and southern India.
Heavy rains in the north and drought in the middle
Some places have had terrible things happen because of the unequal distribution of rain, while others have run out of water. IMD authorities said that the monsoon has had a “prolonged break,” which has caused heavy rains across the foothills of the Himalayas. This has caused damage in states like Uttarakhand, which has gotten 57% more rain than normal this month. Himachal Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh have also seen big increases, just like the others.
Central India, on the other hand, has been having a hard time because it hasn’t rained enough. In August, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, and Maharashtra all saw shortages of more than 60%. M. Mohapatra, the Director General of the IMD, said that the monsoon trough moved to the foothills of the Himalayas, which blocked rain from reaching the central, eastern, and northeastern areas of the country.
A Low-Pressure Area Forms: Hope for Recovery
But things might get better for central India soon. Officials from the IMD are hopeful that a low-pressure region emerging over the Bay of Bengal would move toward central India and bring much-needed rain. Mohapatra added, “We expect that central India will start to recover from the lack.”
Mahesh Palawat of Skymet Weather and other private forecasters believe that the inconsistent rainfall is caused by the monsoon trough’s movement. He said that a break in the monsoon is customary in August, but this year’s gap has been “longer and more unforgiving.” The low-pressure area over the Bay of Bengal is likely to draw the monsoon trough southward, which will help farmers in dry areas like Rajasthan, Gujarat, and western Madhya Pradesh.
But not all academics think this level of variety is strange. M Rajeevan, who used to be the secretary at the ministry of earth sciences, claimed that this unevenness is “absolutely part of monsoon variability.” He also said that during a break phase, rainfall usually only fall in the foothills and southeast India.