According to Ember, an energy think tank, fossil fuel-based power generation is dropping in major markets like China and India. This is because the rise of clean energy sources is currently outpacing the growth of electricity consumption. In the first half of 2025, the U.S. and the European Union (EU) both witnessed fossil fuel generation go up. This is not the case in this case.
COP28 Pledge and Global Clean Power Momentum
The International Energy Agency (IEA) said that renewable electricity sources are still growing quickly around the world, mostly because of growth in India, Europe, and other emerging nations.
The IEA, on the other hand, lowered its prediction for how much renewable energy capacity will develop around the world between 2025 and 2030 in its most recent study. The IEA’s last prediction said that worldwide capacity would expand by 2.7 times the current level, although it is still expected to double by 2030. The key reason for this downward revision is changes in policy in the U.S. and China. The U.S. projection was lowered by over 50%.
COP28 Tripling Target in Danger: The problems are likely to make it harder for the world to reach the COP28 agreement to triple renewable energy capacity by 2030. The IEA now thinks that the world’s capacity will only reach 2.6 times what it was in 2022 by 2030.
A Path to Tripling: Fatih Birol, the IEA’s Executive Director, said that the tripling goal “can still be brought within reach if countries adopt better policies” to lower policy uncertainty, speed up permitting, and boost investment in grid infrastructure. By 2030, capacity might reach 2.8 times what it was in 2022 in a “accelerated case.”
Solar PV Dominance: In the next several years, solar PV will be the biggest contributor to the increase of global renewable capacity. Wind, hydropower, bioenergy, and geothermal sources will also play a role.
India and China are the first to stop using fossil fuels.
Ember’s study shows that the unprecedented growth of solar and wind power around the world surpassed the rise of global electricity demand in the first half of 2025. This led to a relatively minor drop in the use of coal and gas compared to the previous year. For the first time ever, renewable energy sources have made up more of the world’s power mix than coal.
China’s Clean Lead: China is still the world leader in clean energy growth, adding more solar and wind power than all the other countries put together. This expansion helped China lower its use of fossil fuels by 2% in the first half of 2025.
India’s Record Momentum: India saw record growth in wind and solar energy, with clean energy growth more than three times as fast as demand growth. This caused a big drop in fossil fuels, with coal falling 3.1% and gas falling 34%. India’s power sector emissions fell by 3.6% overall. Neshwin Rodrigues, Ember’s Senior Energy Analyst for Asia, said that this drop is a “clear sign of momentum,” and it was helped by a temporary dip in energy consumption, which was very low at 1.3%.
India’s Positive Outlook: The IEA research said that India is on course to fulfill its 2030 goals and would become the second-largest growth market for renewables, with capacity estimated to grow by 2.5 times in the next five years. This is because there are more auctions and increased subsidies for solar panels on rooftops.
Different Trends in the West and Other Areas
The U.S. and the EU had an increase in fossil generation, whereas Asia’s giants saw a decrease:
U.S. Fossil Generation Rises: Demand growth in the U.S. outpaced the rise of clean electricity, which led to an increase in fossil generation.
EU Fossil Generation Rises: The EU had less power coming from wind and hydro sources that were already in place, therefore it used more gas and coal to make electricity.
Europe’s Good News: Even though fossil fuel prices went up for a short time, the EU’s overall growth prediction was raised somewhat. This was mostly because there were more utility-scale solar PV installations than predicted in Germany and Spain, where strong corporate power purchase agreements (PPAs) drove the rise.
The Middle East and North Africa had the biggest regional update. Its growth prediction was raised by 25% because solar PV is growing quickly, especially in Saudi Arabia.