IMF’s Gita Gopinath: Pollution Is A More “Consequential” Threat To India Than Tariffs

DAVOS, SWITZERLAND — In a stinging assessment of India’s economic hurdles, Gita Gopinath, former IMF Chief Economist and current Harvard professor, warned that pollution has surpassed trade barriers as the nation’s most pressing economic risk. During a session at the World Economic Forum (WEF) on Wednesday, January 21, 2026, Gopinath called for a “war footing” response to an environmental crisis she claims is shaving significant percentage points off India’s growth.

Her remarks come as India grapples with 50% tariffs imposed by the Trump administration in late 2025—the highest for any Asian nation—yet Gopinath argues the “internal tax” of pollution is even more damaging.

1. The Economic and Human Toll

Gopinath utilized stark data to illustrate that pollution is not merely a “green” issue but a macroeconomic emergency.

• Mortality Rates: Citing a World Bank study, she noted that pollution causes 1.7 million deaths in India annually, accounting for roughly 18% of all fatalities.
• GDP Impact: Independent analyses discussed at Davos suggest that air pollution costs India between 1.3% and 3% of its GDP through lost labor hours, reduced productivity, and staggering healthcare expenses. Some studies even place the welfare loss as high as 9%.
• Investor Deterrence: Gopinath highlighted that global CEOs are increasingly hesitant to “put up shop” in India because of the health risks to their workforce. “If you have to live there and the environment is consequential to your health, it holds you back,” she cautioned.

2. Political Firestorm in India

Gopinath’s comparison between domestic pollution and international tariffs triggered immediate reactions across the Indian political spectrum:

• The Opposition: Leaders like Aditya Thackeray (Shiv Sena UBT) thanked Gopinath for providing “constructive advice,” while Congress MP Manickam Tagore accused the government of “choking growth” by ignoring the crisis.
• The Ruling Coalition: Milind Deora (Shiv Sena) countered that it is “wrong to compare” the two, arguing that pollution is an internal fixable issue, whereas tariffs are external barriers requiring a different diplomatic strategy.

3. The “War Footing” Proposal

Gopinath urged the Indian government to elevate air quality to a “top national mission,” suggesting it be treated with the same urgency as the push for $5 trillion economy status.

• Integration: She argued that pollution control should be integrated into business development conversations, rather than being sidelined as an environmental niche.
• The “Hidden Tax”: Framing dirty air as a tax, Gopinath noted that families pay this cost through hospital bills and lost wages, which ultimately slows the pace of lifting citizens into higher income brackets.

Comparative Impact: Tariffs vs. Pollution (Jan 2026)