The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued a warning for a fresh spell of heavy to very heavy rainfall across vast parts of India over the coming days. The forecast is driven by a combination of active weather systems, including the anticipated formation of a new low-pressure area over the Bay of Bengal.
Northwest India Under Red Alert
Northwest India, which has already been battered by record rainfall, is bracing for more intense downpours. The IMD has predicted that extremely heavy showers (over 21 cm) are very likely to occur at isolated places in Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, and western Uttar Pradesh until Tuesday. A red alert has been issued for most of northwest India, including Punjab, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, and Uttarakhand, highlighting the significant risk of flash floods and landslides.
In the past 24 hours, several areas have already recorded extreme rainfall. Places in Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, West Rajasthan, and Telangana received ‘heavy to very heavy’ rainfall, while parts of Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, and East Rajasthan also experienced very heavy showers.
Western and Coastal India on High Alert
The weather systems are also expected to bring intense rainfall to western and coastal regions of the country. Heavy to very heavy rain is likely over the Konkan region, Goa, central Maharashtra, Gujarat, and coastal Karnataka between September 3 and 6. Isolated areas in Gujarat could face extremely heavy rainfall on September 4 and 5, raising concerns about flooding in these areas.
The Science Behind the Monsoon Fury
Meteorologists explain that the current spell of extreme weather is the result of a complex interplay of several atmospheric systems. Conditions are highly favorable for the formation of a low-pressure area over the north Bay of Bengal within the next 24 hours. This system is developing under the influence of an upper-air cyclonic circulation over the northeast Bay of Bengal and adjoining Myanmar coast.
Adding to this, the monsoon trough is positioned close to its normal location, and a western disturbance is seen as a cyclonic circulation over Punjab and neighboring Pakistan. According to weather experts, the interaction between these systems, particularly the Western Disturbance and the monsoon circulation, is a rare but potent combination that is responsible for the unusually heavy rainfall this year. This “two-system interaction” pulls in humid winds from both the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal, leading to intense downpours, especially in the hilly regions.
Officials and experts are urging state authorities to remain on high alert, as the saturated ground in states like Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand makes them highly susceptible to fresh landslides, road blockages, and flash floods.