As tensions escalate between the United States and Iran, analysts say Russia may emerge as an unexpected beneficiary—economically and strategically.
Officials close to Vladimir Putin have openly acknowledged the pragmatic approach. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov recently remarked that Russia should “secure benefits for ourselves where possible,” even if that sounds cynical.
Russia–Iran Ties Strengthened by War
The relationship between Russia and Iran deepened during the Russian invasion of Ukraine, when Moscow relied heavily on Iranian-made Shahed drones to attack Ukrainian infrastructure.
Now, experts believe Russia may be helping Iran with intelligence and battlefield tactics, including satellite imagery and advice on countering Western weapons such as Patriot missile system and ATACMS missile system.
British Defence Secretary John Healey said the patterns of Iranian attacks show similarities to Russian military tactics used in Ukraine.
Oil Crisis Becomes Russia’s Opportunity
The conflict has disrupted shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, a key global energy chokepoint. The International Energy Agency has described the situation as potentially the largest oil supply disruption in history.
As a result, global oil prices surged above $100 per barrel, creating a financial windfall for oil exporters like Russia.
At the same time, the United States Department of the Treasury issued a 30-day waiver allowing certain Russian oil shipments, affecting roughly 100 million barrels of crude already at sea.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent defended the move as necessary to stabilise global energy markets.
Concerns Among Western Allies
The policy has worried several US allies in Europe, including leaders from Germany, France, and the United Kingdom, who fear it could indirectly fund Russia’s war effort in Ukraine.
Meanwhile, US Senator Richard Blumenthal alleged that Moscow may be actively assisting Tehran, and suggested China could also be offering support—an accusation Beijing has denied.
Russia’s “War Economy”
Economists say rising oil prices are vital for sustaining Russia’s war effort. Analyst Vladislav Inozemtsev has described the country’s wartime economic model as “smertonomika”, or the “economy of death.”
According to estimates, about 40% of Russia’s state budget is now devoted to military spending in the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
India’s Energy Balancing Act
The crisis has also complicated energy planning for India, the world’s third-largest oil importer.
With tanker traffic disrupted in the Strait of Hormuz, India has increased purchases of Russian crude to around 1.5 million barrels per day in March, a 50% jump from February.
New Delhi is now trying to balance energy security, global diplomacy, and shifting geopolitical alliances as the conflict reshapes global oil flows.