Pakistan’s path to the T20 World Cup 2026 semi-finals has become increasingly complicated after New Zealand’s dominant win over Sri Lanka in Colombo.
A brilliant all-round display from Mitchell Santner with the bat and a four-wicket haul from Rachin Ravindra helped the Black Caps secure a massive 61-run victory. The result not only pushed New Zealand closer to a semi-final berth but also dealt a significant blow to the Pakistan national cricket team.
Led by Salman Ali Agha, Pakistan now find themselves walking a tightrope in Group 2.
Super 8 Group 2 Points Table (Current Standings)
- England cricket team – 4 points (NRR +1.491) ✅ Qualified
- New Zealand national cricket team – 3 points (NRR +3.050)
- Pakistan national cricket team – 1 point (NRR -0.461)
- Sri Lanka national cricket team – 0 points ❌ Eliminated
England have already sealed their semi-final spot, while Sri Lanka are out of contention.
Remaining Fixtures – Group 2
- February 27: New Zealand vs England
- February 28: Pakistan vs Sri Lanka
What Pakistan Need to Qualify
✅ Scenario 1: Pakistan Win, New Zealand Lose
If New Zealand lose to England and Pakistan defeat Sri Lanka, both teams will finish with 3 points.
Qualification will then be decided by Net Run Rate (NRR).
However, New Zealand currently hold a massive NRR advantage (+3.050), while Pakistan’s NRR stands at -0.461.
For Pakistan to qualify in this case:
- England must beat New Zealand by a big margin
- Pakistan must defeat Sri Lanka by a huge margin
Only then can Pakistan overhaul New Zealand’s superior NRR.
❌ Scenario 2: Pakistan Lose
If Pakistan lose to Sri Lanka, they are immediately eliminated.
❌ Scenario 3: New Zealand Beat England
If New Zealand defeat England, Pakistan will be knocked out even before playing Sri Lanka, as the Black Caps would move to 5 points.
❌ Scenario 4: Match Washed Out
If the New Zealand vs England match is washed out, New Zealand will move to 4 points. In that case, Pakistan will be eliminated even if they beat Sri Lanka.
How New Zealand Seized Control
In the crucial clash, Rachin Ravindra picked up 4/27, dismantling Sri Lanka’s batting lineup as they were restricted to 107/8 while chasing 169.
Earlier, New Zealand had recovered from 75/2 to post 168/7, thanks to Santner’s 47 and Cole McConchie’s unbeaten 31.
The Bottom Line
Pakistan’s qualification now depends heavily on:
- England defeating New Zealand convincingly
- A massive win over Sri Lanka
- A dramatic swing in Net Run Rate
Anything less will end their T20 World Cup 2026 campaign in the Super 8 stage.