The ongoing Iran war is sending shockwaves far beyond crude oil markets, disrupting key global supply chains and straining industries dependent on Gulf exports. Since the US-Israeli strikes began three weeks ago, the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, trapping 10–15% of the world’s oil supply. Brent crude briefly touched $106 a barrel on March 16, 2026, its highest since mid-2022.
But oil is only part of the story. The Gulf states supply a significant portion of other crucial commodities: 22% of global urea, 24% of aluminium, a third of helium, and 45% of sulphur originate there. Drones hitting plants and the blockade have caused massive disruptions in transportation, manufacturing, and food production.
Transport and Fuel:
Asian refiners are struggling with sharply reduced Gulf crude, which is both costlier and compositionally mismatched for existing plants. Diesel and jet fuel, already scarce, are running short, causing operating cuts of 5–15% in China, India, Japan, and Thailand. Vortexa reports 125 product tankers, or 5% of the global fleet, trapped in Gulf waters. Europe, heavily dependent on Gulf jet fuel imports, faces rising transport costs. Modeling suggests Oceania could exhaust 80% of its jet-fuel stocks within 36 days, Africa within 23, and parts of Asia outside East Asia in just 12 days.
Manufacturing and Petrochemicals:
Gulf petrochemical plants account for nearly 45% of global seaborne naphtha and 23–30% of critical plastic feedstocks like styrene and polyethylene. Disruptions have forced Asian plastic producers to declare force majeure. Active pharmaceutical ingredients also rely on Gulf petrochemicals, affecting India’s vast generic drug industry. Additionally, Gulf exports include 26% of industrial diamonds, glycol, and 30% of methanol, essential for construction, chemicals, and resins.
Aluminium and Industrial Metals:
Qatar, Bahrain, and UAE smelters are short on gas and raw materials, while Oman’s aluminium exports face attacks and soaring shipping costs. As a result, London Metal Exchange aluminium prices for three-month delivery surged to $3,440 a tonne, near a four-year high. Europe and the US, heavily dependent on Gulf aluminium, are experiencing record delivery premiums.
The crisis underscores that the Gulf is critical not just for energy but for a broad spectrum of global commodities. Even a swift reopening of the Strait of Hormuz will not immediately stabilize markets due to damaged refineries, disrupted infrastructure, and hesitant shippers.