New Delhi, India — A new report released on Monday by the Stockholm Environment Institute, the International Institute for Sustainable Development, and Climate Analytics has revealed a significant and alarming “production gap” between global fossil fuel production plans and the levels needed to meet the Paris Agreement’s climate goals.
The “2025 Production Gap Report” found that countries are collectively planning to produce more fossil fuels than they did two years ago. The projected production levels for 2030 are set to exceed the amount consistent with limiting global warming to 1.5°C by over 120%. This increase directly undermines the commitments made at the 2023 United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP28) to transition away from fossil fuels in a just and equitable manner.
The report, which analyzed the plans of 20 major fossil-fuel-producing countries responsible for 80% of global production, found that:
- 17 out of 20 countries still plan to increase production of at least one fossil fuel by 2030.
- Governments now plan even higher levels of coal production to 2035 and gas production to 2050 than they did in 2023.
- Planned oil production also continues to increase.
- Countries including China, Germany, India, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and the US all expect higher production of at least one fossil fuel in 2030 than they had planned in 2023.
Urgent Need for Course Correction
The report emphasizes that the continued failure of governments to curb fossil fuel production means future emissions reductions will need to be even steeper to compensate. The report’s coordinating lead author, Derik Broekhoff, stated that while some countries have committed to a clean energy transition, many others appear “stuck using a fossil-fuel-dependent playbook.”
The findings highlight a critical need for governments, as they submit their third round of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement, to explicitly integrate plans for reducing fossil fuel production within their wider energy transition strategies.
The report also comes on the heels of a landmark advisory opinion from the International Court of Justice (ICJ) on July 23, 2025. The ICJ found that states have a legal obligation to limit global warming to 1.5°C, holding that a failure to do so would breach international law. This ruling, while non-binding, adds significant legal and moral weight to the global climate effort and underscores the need for countries to take more ambitious action.
With the UN Climate Conference (COP30) approaching in Brazil in November, experts are concerned that a lack of political consensus and geopolitical tensions are hindering progress. The report serves as a stark reminder that the world is far off track from its climate goals, and a significant reversal of current fossil fuel plans is urgently needed to prevent catastrophic climate change.