The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) released its latest NDC Synthesis Report on Tuesday, October 28, 2025, analyzing the new Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) submitted for the 2035 period.1
The report, based on only 64 new NDCs submitted between January 1, 2024, and September 30, 2025, highlights both progress in the quality of climate plans and a persistent, critical gap in ambition and speed needed to meet the Paris Agreement goals.2
📈 Global Progress and Shortfall
| Metric | Finding from Report / UNFCCC Officials | Context/Comparison |
| Emissions Trajectory | Global emissions projected to fall by around 10% by 2035 (compared to 2019 levels), based on new NDCs and announced targets (like China’s). | Required Reductions: Emissions must fall by 57% by 2035 (and 43% by 2030) to keep warming within the $1.5^{\circ}\text{C}$ limit. |
| New NDCs’ Collective Cut | The 64 new NDCs alone would collectively cut greenhouse gas emissions by 17% by 2035 (compared to 2019 levels). | This collective cut only covers about 30% of total global emissions, making the global conclusion limited. |
| Economy-Wide Targets | 89% of the parties submitting new NDCs this year have communicated economy-wide targets. | This shows a progression in quality and coverage compared to previous NDCs. |
| Consistency with Net Zero | 80% of parties specified how their new NDCs are broadly consistent with a linear trajectory toward their long-term net-zero targets. | This indicates parties are laying out clearer stepping-stones towards their long-term goals. |
🛑 Major Limitations and Concerns
- Incomplete Data: Only 64 of 195 parties have submitted their updated NDCs so far.3 The limited scope means it is “not possible to draw wide-ranging global-level conclusions.”
- Missing Major Emitters: The top three emitters—China, the European Union (EU), and the US—have either not submitted formal NDCs or their plans have significant uncertainty.
- China: Announced a plan to cut economy-wide net GHG emissions by 7-10% from peak levels by 2035.4
- EU: Submitted a “statement of intent” with a 2035 target range of 5$66.25\% \text{ to } 72.5\%$ reduction in net GHG emissions (compared to 1990), but consensus is still lacking.6
- US: The NDC considered was submitted under the previous administration (Joe Biden), and its commitments are viewed as unlikely to come through given the change in government and withdrawal from the Paris Agreement.
- India’s Status: India is awaiting a Cabinet nod to update its NDC.
🌟 Quality Improvements in New NDCs
The report noted a clear improvement in the quality and scope of the new submissions:
- Whole-of-Economy Approach: The plans are moving toward strong climate action as a core pillar for economic stability, jobs, health, and energy security.
- Global Stocktake Response: 88% of the new NDCs were informed by the outcomes of the first Global Stocktake (GST) in 2023.
- Comprehensive Scope: All submitted NDCs go beyond mitigation to include elements like:
- Adaptation
- Finance
- Technology Transfer
- Capacity-Building
- Addressing Loss and Damage
The report serves as a critical progress check ahead of the 2025 UN Climate Change Conference (COP30), where leaders are expected to deliver faster and deeper emission reductions.