New Delhi [India]: Global spending on Artificial Intelligence (AI) is forecast to surge by 60% year-on-year in 2025, reaching USD 360 billion, according to a recent report by UBS. The upward trend is expected to continue, with AI investments climbing a further 33% in 2026 to USD 480 billion.
While the overall AI investment landscape is growing, the dominance of the Big 4 tech giants — Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Meta — is expected to slightly decline. Their combined share of global AI spending is projected to fall from 58% in 2025 to 52% in 2026, the report noted.
UBS highlighted that the increasing diversity of AI investors is a positive sign for the market.
“We expect global AI spend to increase by 60% y/y in 2025 to reach USD 360bn and 33% in 2026 to reach USD 480bn… We expect the combined share of these companies as a percentage of AI spend to rise from less than 20% in 2023 to more than 40% in 2025,” the report stated.
Spending outside the Big 4 is expected to be robust at USD 150 billion in 2025, with China accounting for 35% of this portion. The surge in China’s AI investments is driven by:
- The success of cost-effective models like DeepSeek
- Strong government backing
- The growing application of AI in e-commerce, social media, and advertising
Neocloud providers—companies delivering AI-integrated cloud services—are emerging as key players, expected to capture around 25% of non-Big 4 AI expenditure in 2025. Additionally, other hyperscalers, along with enterprise and sovereign cloud providers like Oracle and SoftBank, will contribute to the remaining investments.
UBS recommends that investors continue tracking the Big 4, but emphasizes that other AI-focused firms are gaining momentum, which is essential to maintain the sector’s resilience.