PARIS – After losing a vote of confidence in the National Assembly, French Prime Minister François Bayrou’s cabinet has officially fallen apart. Bayrou officially resigned from his job on Tuesday, just nine months after taking office. This is the fifth time Macron has had to choose a new prime minister in less than two years. This shows how deeply and persistently divided French politics are.
The 364 legislators who voted against Bayrou’s administration in the no-confidence vote were directly rejecting his proposed austerity budget. This was much above the 280 votes needed to remove him. The plan to deal with France’s growing debt and deficit includes €44 billion in budget cuts and tax increases, as well as the very unpopular idea of getting rid of two public holidays.
The political chaos goes back to Macron’s “ill-fated” choice to call a snap election last year. This led to a hung parliament, where no one party had a majority. Because of this, Macron’s governments have had a hard time getting laws passed, which has led to a number of short-lived prime ministers. Michel Barnier, Bayrou’s predecessor, also lost a no-confidence vote in December of last year.
Macron has a big job ahead of him: finding a successor who can successfully navigate this broken political terrain. The left-leaning Socialist Party, led by Olivier Faure, has already offered to form a government, but both the far-right National Rally and the center-right Republicans have turned it down. It is quite hard to find a candidate who can agree on everything because of this significant ideological gap.
France’s economy has suffered because of the uncertainty. The CAC 40 stock index in France has not done as well as similar indexes in other European countries. The difference between France’s 10-year government bond and Germany’s bund, which is a major measure of risk, has grown, showing that investors are worried about France’s public finances. France has the biggest budget deficit in the euro area right now, and its debt is growing at an alarming rate.
Macron needs to move swiftly because a union strike is planned for September 18 and a Fitch Ratings credit report is due on Friday. Marine Le Pen’s National Rally and Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s far-left France Unbowed have both called for new legislative elections. However, Macron has ruled out this option and promised to stay in power until the end of his term in 2027.
The office of Macron has said that he will select a new prime minister in the next few days. But because the National Assembly doesn’t have a clear-cut majority, any new prime minister would have a hard time governing well, just like their predecessors. Unless Macron can find a way to establish a solid coalition, the political deadlock will likely remain.