Weak output in crude oil, fertilisers, and refinery products drags April’s core sector growth; only coal, cement, steel, electricity, and gas show modest uptick
New Delhi [India], May 21:
India’s industrial momentum faltered in April 2025, with the Index of Eight Core Industries (ICI) registering a sluggish year-on-year growth of just 0.5 per cent, the lowest in the past eight months, according to data released by the Ministry of Commerce and Industry on Tuesday. The tepid performance points to a broad-based slowdown, despite isolated gains in select sectors.
The index, which measures the output of eight foundational industries—coal, crude oil, natural gas, refinery products, fertilisers, steel, cement, and electricity—acts as a critical indicator of industrial activity and contributes 40.27 per cent to the broader Index of Industrial Production (IIP).
Of the eight sectors, coal, natural gas, cement, steel, and electricity recorded growth, while crude oil, refinery products, and fertilisers saw contractions. The final growth rate of the ICI for January 2025 stood at 5.1 per cent, whereas the cumulative growth from April 2024 to March 2025 was 4.5 per cent.
Sector-wise Performance (YoY – April 2025):
- Coal: +3.5% (Cumulative: +5.1%)
- Crude Oil: -2.8% (Cumulative: -2.2%)
- Natural Gas: +0.4% (Cumulative: -1.2%)
- Refinery Products: -4.5% (Cumulative: +2.8%)
- Fertilisers: -4.2% (Cumulative: +2.9%)
- Steel: +3.0% (Cumulative: +6.9%)
- Cement: +6.7% (Cumulative: +6.3%)
- Electricity: +1.0% (Cumulative: +5.2%)
The biggest drags were refinery products and fertilisers, down 4.5% and 4.2% respectively. Crude oil also fell 2.8%, continuing a longer-term trend of subdued output. On the other hand, cement led the gainers with a 6.7% rise, followed by coal and steel.
Expert View:
Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist & Head of Research and Outreach at ICRA Ltd, called the slump “significant,” stating:
“The performance of the core sector deteriorated sharply in April 2025, with YoY growth plunging to an 8-month low of 0.5%. This deceleration was broad-based, led by six of the eight sectors barring coal and natural gas.”
She further added:
“Based on the weak core sector numbers and other high-frequency indicators, ICRA expects IIP growth to fall sharply to around 1.0% in April. Non-oil exports may offer some upside—unless they are reflective of round-tripping.”
The April slowdown comes after a revised growth of 4.6 per cent in March 2025, underlining the challenge of sustaining industrial recovery amid global headwinds, volatile commodity prices, and domestic constraints.
The government is expected to closely monitor sectoral performance and may consider targeted policy interventions to bolster demand and output, especially in lagging industries such as crude oil and fertilisers.