Beijing/Avarua/Wellington: China’s growing influence across the Pacific Islands is once again under the spotlight following the Cook Islands’ recent strategic agreements with Beijing, sparking concerns in New Zealand, Australia, and the wider Indo-Pacific.
When Cook Islands Prime Minister Mark Brown visited Beijing in February 2025, the two nations signed four major agreements, including the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Action Plan (2025-2030). Other deals focused on the blue economy, seabed minerals, and technical cooperation, reinforcing China’s vision of embedding itself in the Pacific’s future development. Beijing also pledged RMB 20 million in aid for unspecified projects.
But these moves have deeply unsettled Wellington. In June, New Zealand froze NZD 18.2 million in aid, expressing frustration over the Cooks’ lack of transparency regarding the deal with China. Foreign Minister Winston Peters said the pause was to reassess ties, as defense and security consultations are required under the 2001 Joint Centenary Declaration, despite the Cooks’ status as a self-governing state.
Critics warn this response could be counterproductive.
“This may drive the Cook Islands further into China’s orbit,” said Dr. Anna Powles of Massey University, adding that “aid should not be a bargaining chip”, but acknowledging potential national security overlaps between New Zealand and its Pacific partners.
PM Brown slammed Wellington’s stance as “patronizing” and hinted again at pushing for full independence, using deep-sea mining wealth as leverage.
Meanwhile, analysts such as Prof. James Chin of the University of Tasmania caution that the Cook Islands’ new dependence on Chinese financing risks long-term economic and political shifts, aligning their future more with Beijing than traditional partners like Australia and New Zealand.
This episode mirrors China’s success in the Solomon Islands, where Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare’s 2022 security deal with China blind sided Australia and the US. Beijing is now viewed as offering Pacific nations an alternative patronage model—aid without political conditions—undermining Western influence.
A 2023 ASPI report warns that China’s influence operations aim to reshape the Pacific’s political norms, erode democratic resilience, and replace trust in Western allies with allegiance to Beijing, especially around sensitive issues like Taiwan, the South China Sea, and Xinjiang.
The strategic dimensions are clearer than ever. Beijing is collecting vital seafloor data for submarine operations across the region and PLA Navy ships recently cruised the Tasman Sea, triggering alarm in Australia and New Zealand.
Prof. David Capie from Victoria University warned:
“We will see more PLAN activity in the South Pacific as China asserts global naval reach. Australasia must rethink defense investment urgently.“
Meanwhile, China frets over New Zealand possibly joining AUKUS Pillar 2, despite Wellington’s historically poor defense posture—a development that would escalate tensions.
Similar Chinese tactics have surfaced in New Caledonia, where France’s Macron government fears Beijing’s influence amid local unrest and independence movements.
The broader takeaway?
The Pacific, once considered secure ground for Western democracies, is now a contested geopolitical theatre where China’s economic charm offensive risks reshaping alliances, security arrangements, and even sovereignty decisions across dozens of small but strategically crucial island nations.