BEIJING—China’s economy expanded by 5% in 2025, according to official data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Monday, January 19, 2026. While the figure meets the government’s target of “around five percent,” it represents one of the country’s slowest growth rates in decades, hampered by a persistent property slump and a resurging trade war with the United States.
The data reveals a significant loss of momentum toward the end of the year, with GDP growing just 4.5% in the October-December quarter, down from more robust figures earlier in the year.
1. The Consumer Crisis: Jittery Spending & Weak Retail
Despite government subsidies for household appliances and relaxed fiscal policies, Chinese consumers remain reluctant to open their wallets.
- Retail Slump: Retail sales, the primary gauge of domestic consumption, grew by only 0.9% year-on-year in December. This marks the weakest performance since the end of the “Zero-Covid” era in 2022.
- Sentiment Gap: Analysts warn that while the 5% headline figure allows officials to “declare victory,” it masks a deep sense of economic anxiety on the ground, fueled by high youth unemployment and stagnant wages.
2. Property Sector: The Ongoing Debt Drag
The real estate sector, once the engine of Chinese growth, continues to contract despite Beijing’s efforts to lower interest rates and ease homebuying restrictions.
- Investment Plunge: Real estate investment plummeted by 17.2% in 2025, a staggering decline that highlights the severity of the developer debt crisis.
- Fixed-Asset Rebalancing: Overall fixed-asset investment shrunk by 3.8%, signaling a forced shift away from the infrastructure-heavy growth model of previous decades.
3. Trade: A Record Surplus Despite the “Trump Factor”
One of the few bright spots in the 2025 economic report was the resilience of Chinese exports, even as trade relations with Washington soured following Donald Trump’s return to the White House.
- The U.S. Decline: Chinese exports to the United States plunged by 20% in 2025 as tit-for-tat tariffs took a bite out of trade. A tentative truce was reached between President Xi Jinping and Trump in late October, but the damage to the bilateral corridor remains significant.
- Pivot to Global South: China successfully mitigated U.S. losses by pivoting to other markets:
- ASEAN: Exports up 13.4%
- Africa: Exports surged by 25.8%
- EU: Exports grew by 8.4%
- Record Surplus: China’s total trade surplus reached a historic $1.2 trillion, driven by global demand for high-tech manufacturing and green energy products.
Economic Indicators 2025: At a Glance
| Indicator | 2025 Figure | Performance Trend |
| Annual GDP Growth | 5.0% | Met Target (Slowest in Decades) |
| Q4 GDP Growth | 4.5% | Slowing (In-line with expectations) |
| Retail Sales (Dec) | 0.9% | Weakest since 2022 |
| Real Estate Investment | -17.2% | Severe Contraction |
| U.S. Export Volume | -20.0% | Impacted by Trade War |
| Global Trade Surplus | $1.2 Trillion | All-time High |