New Delhi [India], June 17 : As trade tensions between the United States and China intensify, Beijing is increasingly redirecting its exports to alternative markets including India, the European Union (EU), and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), according to a report by the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) based on May 2025 trade data.
The GTRI report highlights a significant decline in China’s exports to the U.S., which fell sharply by 34.5%—from USD 44 billion in May 2024 to USD 28.8 billion in May 2025. Despite this drop, China’s overall exports grew modestly by 4.6%, from USD 302.1 billion to USD 316.2 billion.
To offset the loss from the U.S. market, China has ramped up shipments to other regions: exports to the EU rose 12% to USD 49.5 billion, to ASEAN by 15% to USD 58.4 billion, and to India by 12.4% to USD 11.13 billion.
GTRI noted that this redirection shows how global supply chains are rapidly adapting in response to shifting geopolitical dynamics. However, the report also cautioned that such aggressive export strategies could result in market dumping, urging recipient countries to stay vigilant.
India’s trade data for May 2025 reflects this shift. While overall merchandise imports declined slightly by 1.8% to USD 60.6 billion—mainly due to reduced oil and gold purchases—non-petroleum and non-gold imports rose significantly. Excluding petroleum, gold, and diamonds, India’s imports increased by 12% from USD 36.8 billion to USD 41.2 billion.
Key growth areas included electronics, which jumped 27.5% to USD 9.1 billion, and machinery and computers, which rose 22% to USD 5 billion. A substantial portion of these imports originated from China, with India’s combined imports from China and Hong Kong climbing 22.4% to USD 12 billion, up from USD 9.8 billion a year ago.
On the export front, India saw a 17.3% rise in shipments to the U.S., totaling USD 8.8 billion in May 2025, driven largely by smartphone exports.
The report underscores the broader global trade uncertainty, heightened by ongoing conflicts in the Middle East involving Iran, Israel, Hamas, and the Houthis, which threaten to disrupt shipping routes and oil supplies.
Amid these developments, GTRI recommends that India remain cautious, pursue balanced trade deals, and continue enhancing its business environment to strengthen its global trade standing.