Hong Kong: A Chinese naval task force has stirred alarm in Australia and New Zealand after conducting live-fire drills in the Tasman Sea, forcing commercial aircraft to alter flight paths. Simultaneously, China signed a maritime agreement with the Cook Islands, expanding its influence in the South Pacific.
Chinese Warships Conduct Unprecedented Live-Fire Exercises
A People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) task group—comprising the Type 055 cruiser Zunyi, Type 054A frigate Hengyang, and Type 903 replenishment ship Weishanhu—entered deep into the Tasman Sea, a crucial body of water separating Australia and New Zealand.
After arriving in the Coral Sea on February 13, the Chinese warships moved southward, passing east of Sydney and northeast of Tasmania. The PLAN issued a broadcast warning on February 21, instructing aircraft to stay clear of a designated zone 640 km off Sydney’s coast as it carried out live-fire drills. A second exercise took place closer to New Zealand on February 22. The fleet is now holding position 520 km east of Tasmania.
This marks the first time that Chinese naval drills have directly impacted commercial air traffic in the region, raising security concerns in Australia and New Zealand.
New Zealand and Australia React with Caution
New Zealand’s Defence Minister Judith Collins acknowledged the PLAN activity, stating:
“Nobody wants to overreact, no one wants to get too excitable, everybody wants to stay very calm and understand that, while China is complying with the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, it is always quite good to give people notice.”
However, she criticized China for failing to notify them adequately:
“They have not deigned to advise us on what they are doing in the middle of the Tasman Sea.”
China dismissed these concerns, with National Ministry of Defense spokesperson Wu Qian stating:
“During the period, China organized live-fire training of naval guns toward the sea on the basis of repeatedly issuing prior safety notices,” adding that the exercises were in full compliance with international law.
Experts Weigh In on Strategic Implications
Jennifer Parker, an Expert Associate at the National Security College, Australian National University, explained that live-fire drills in international waters are standard military practice:
“Live-firing exercises on the high seas are standard training practices permitted under international law. Australia does this on our deployments, and we should avoid overreacting. It’s not aggressive; it’s just what warships do on the high seas.”
However, Parker pointed out that the drills may have been too close to civilian air traffic routes, leading to unexpected flight diversions.
Meanwhile, Mick Ryan, a former Australian Army major general, highlighted the strategic motivations behind China’s actions:
“The most obvious reason is to point out that, if Australia conducts freedom of navigation exercises off the Chinese coast, China can reciprocate. But unlike China, Australia doesn’t have a nine-dash line beyond the 12-nautical-mile limit where it seeks to deny international maritime traffic.”
Ryan warned that China might be normalizing such naval operations to keep Australian warships closer to home, restricting their ability to support allies in the Indo-Pacific. He added that Beijing is also closely monitoring Australia’s response, including defense readiness, tactics, and political reactions.
Cook Islands Signs Strategic Maritime Deal with China
Adding to regional concerns, China secured a maritime foothold in the South Pacific by signing a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with the Cook Islands on February 14. The agreement, signed by Cook Islands Prime Minister Mark Brown in Harbin, China, covers port infrastructure, shipbuilding, ocean transportation, and deep-sea fishing.
Despite assurances that no deep-sea mining rights have been granted, the agreement is a strategic win for China, expanding its maritime presence and raising security concerns in New Zealand, which has constitutional ties to the Cook Islands.
New Zealand’s Foreign Minister Winston Peters expressed dissatisfaction, stating:
“While the connection between the people of the Cook Islands and New Zealand remains resolutely strong, we currently face challenges in the government-to-government relationship.”
China’s Growing Influence and Regional Strategy
China’s dual moves—military projection in Australian waters and securing a presence in the South Pacific—underscore its expanding strategic ambitions.
Sam Roggeveen, Director of the Lowy Institute’s International Security Program, cautioned:
“China needs to know that, while it is free to operate in those waters, it does so in the knowledge that, in the worst case, Australia can overcome whatever Beijing sends our way.”
He emphasized that Australia must ensure China does not establish permanent military bases closer to its territory, citing successful efforts in securing agreements with Nauru, Tuvalu, and Papua New Guinea.
However, Michael Shoebridge, Director at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, criticized China’s actions as deliberate provocations:
“China’s PLA Navy has no reason to do live firing in waters between Australia and NZ except as a provocative act. Beijing knew this would cause urgent diversions of civilian aircraft. They wanted that to happen. This isn’t about freedom of navigation.”
Conclusion: A Shift in the Indo-Pacific Security Landscape
China’s naval operations in the Tasman Sea and its diplomatic gains in the South Pacific represent a significant shift in the regional security environment.
As former general Mick Ryan put it:
“This Chinese operation fundamentally changes our security outlook. We’re dealing with an aggressive, irresponsible PLA that so far we have shown little capacity or willingness to deter. Now, with them live-firing off Australia’s coast, might this be the shock our politicians need to fund the ready, lethal, and large Australian Defence Force we need to counter 21st-century authoritarianism?”
Australia and New Zealand must now reassess their defense strategies, as geographical isolation alone is no longer enough to ensure security against China’s expanding military and diplomatic reach.