New Delhi:
With West Bengal assembly elections just months away, the political spotlight has unexpectedly turned to Humayun Kabir, a suspended Trinamool Congress (TMC) leader whose decision to float his own party and challenge Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee has created rare turbulence in the state’s otherwise predictable political landscape.
Kabir’s move has drawn comparisons to Mamata Banerjee’s own dramatic break from the Congress in 1998. But while the trajectories may appear similar on the surface, the parallels largely end there. Unlike Mamata Banerjee—who had already earned a statewide reputation as Bengal’s “Agni Kanya”—Kabir’s influence remains largely confined to his home district of Murshidabad.
Why Kabir’s Move Has Grabbed Attention
In a state known for cautious political shifts, Kabir’s announcement to build a Babri Masjid replica in Bengal and his claim of widespread Muslim backing have raised eyebrows. The formation of his new outfit, the Janata Unnayan Party, while remaining suspended from the TMC, has further fuelled speculation—especially after he declared plans to contest 135 of Bengal’s 294 Assembly seats.
The central question now being debated in political circles is whether Kabir can split the Muslim vote, a crucial bloc that makes up around 27% of Bengal’s population and has been a key pillar of Mamata Banerjee’s electoral success.
A Complex Answer
The answer, however, is far from straightforward.
Kabir’s dramatic Babri Masjid announcement followed years of simmering discontent with Mamata Banerjee’s leadership. His relationship with the TMC has been rocky from the start. In 2015, he was expelled from the party for six years after publicly accusing Mamata Banerjee of attempting to groom her nephew, Abhishek Banerjee, as her political successor.
AIMIM Alliance and Its Limits
Kabir’s next major move was aligning himself with Asaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM, often labelled by rivals as the BJP’s “B team.” While the presence of sizeable Muslim crowds at Kabir’s early rallies has boosted his confidence—and possibly his funding—the political dividends of this alliance remain uncertain.
AIMIM contested seven seats in Bengal in the 2021 Assembly elections but failed to win even one. Although Owaisi’s improved performance in Bihar has revived hopes, Bengal presents a very different political and cultural terrain.
Strengths and Weaknesses
Kabir’s potential strengths include:
- His Bengali Muslim identity, especially in Murshidabad
- Around ₹5 crore in reported funding for the Babri Masjid project
- Possibility of seat-sharing with CPM, ISF, and AIMIM, particularly in Murshidabad’s 22 seats
- Support or tactical leniency from anti-Trinamool forces like the Congress and Left
However, his weaknesses are significant:
- Limited statewide stature and popularity
- A controversial past as a BJP candidate in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, where he finished third
- Lack of a strong organisational network and grassroots cadre
- Potential friction even with allies like ISF at the local level
The BJP stigma from 2019 continues to erode trust among sections of Muslim voters, making his solo political gamble even riskier.
Mamata Banerjee’s Counter-Strategy
Importantly, Mamata Banerjee’s full-scale election campaign has not yet begun. Party insiders suggest she may frame Kabir as a BJP-backed disruptor attempting to divide Muslim votes.
The TMC is also expected to deploy influential Muslim leaders such as Firhad Hakim and Javed Khan Siddiqullah to counter Kabir’s narrative. Additionally, major religious institutions and figures—including Furfura Sharif, prominent imams from Nakhoda Masjid, Tipu Sultan Mosque, and the State Minority Commission—currently appear aligned with Banerjee.
Will AIMIM’s Politics Work in Bengal?
Analysts point out that Bengal’s Muslim population is largely Bengali-speaking, limiting the appeal of AIMIM’s more Urdu-centric politics. This cultural factor could significantly blunt Kabir’s outreach beyond pockets of Murshidabad.
The Bottom Line
While Humayun Kabir has succeeded in injecting uncertainty into Bengal’s political narrative, the odds of him engineering a large-scale Muslim vote split remain slim. Without strong organisation, broader credibility, and influential religious backing, his challenge appears more disruptive than decisive—for now.
Much will depend on how Mamata Banerjee frames the contest and whether Kabir can convert attention into sustained electoral trust.