New Delhi: The ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (United) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), appears poised for a sweeping victory in Bihar, according to a poll of exit polls released Tuesday evening after the conclusion of voting in the second and final phase of the state election.
A consolidated poll of exit polls predicts that the NDA will win around 147 of Bihar’s 243 assembly seats, while the opposition Mahagathbandhan, led by Tejashwi Yadav’s Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and including the Congress, is expected to drop to about 90 seats — nearly 20 fewer than in the previous election.
Caste Votes Shape the Outcome
According to exit poll data from Matrize, OBC and SC communities — crucial voting blocs in Bihar’s caste-driven politics — have overwhelmingly backed the ruling alliance.
- 51% of OBC voters and 49% of Scheduled Caste voters are said to have voted for Nitish Kumar’s NDA.
- In contrast, 78% of Muslim voters reportedly supported the Mahagathbandhan, continuing their strong backing for the opposition.
Political analysts say these numbers reaffirm the NDA’s dominance in mobilising non-Yadav backward classes, a strategy that has helped Nitish Kumar maintain his political relevance for nearly two decades.
Minor Parties Struggle to Make Impact
The much-talked-about debut of Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party appears to have made little difference to the final numbers. While most exit polls predict the party will win just one seat, a few — such as DV Research and P-Marq — suggest Kishor might manage up to four seats.
Analysts say that despite high-profile campaigns and social media visibility, Kishor’s movement failed to convert its visibility into votes on the ground.
Caste Arithmetic Dominates Bihar Politics
Caste dynamics once again defined Bihar’s political battleground. The Bihar caste survey of 2023 showed that over 60% of the state’s 13-crore population belongs to marginalised communities, while nearly 85% are from backward or extremely backward classes or Scheduled Castes/Tribes.
- Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs): 36%
- Backward Classes (BCs): 27.1%
- Scheduled Castes (SCs): 19.7%
- Scheduled Tribes (STs): 1.7%
- General Category (Upper Castes): 15.5%
Both alliances built their candidate lists around these demographics. The Mahagathbandhan allocated 67 tickets to Yadavs — RJD chief Lalu Prasad Yadav’s core voter base — while the NDA fielded 19 Yadav candidates. In contrast, Nitish Kumar’s Kurmi community got 14 tickets from the NDA but only seven from the opposition.
This meticulous caste balancing act, experts say, was central to the NDA’s electoral strategy and may have paid off handsomely.
Exit Poll Summary
| Alliance | Projected Seats | Vote Share (Approx.) |
|---|---|---|
| NDA (BJP + JD(U)) | 147 | ~44% |
| Mahagathbandhan (RJD + Congress + Allies) | 90 | ~39% |
| Others (Including Jan Suraaj) | 6 | ~5% |
Outlook
While official results will confirm the final tally, early projections suggest that Nitish Kumar’s coalition strategy and the NDA’s strong grassroots organisation have once again resonated with Bihar’s voters. The Mahagathbandhan’s dependence on the Yadav-Muslim vote base may not have been sufficient to counter the NDA’s wider caste coalition.