Pakistan’s five-wicket victory over Sri Lanka in Abu Dhabi has completely revitalized the Asia Cup 2025 Super Four Stage, transforming it into a nail-biting, three-way battle for a spot in the final. With just three matches remaining, India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh are now entangled in a high-stakes tug-of-war that promises a thrilling conclusion to the tournament.
The race to the grand finale is heating up, and here’s a look at the current standings and the complex scenarios each team faces as they fight for survival.
Current Standings (as of September 24)
- India: Played 1, Won 1, Lost 0, Points 2, Net Run Rate (NRR) +0.689
- Pakistan: Played 2, Won 1, Lost 1, Points 2, NRR +0.226
- Bangladesh: Played 1, Won 1, Lost 0, Points 2, NRR +0.121
- Sri Lanka: Played 2, Won 0, Lost 2, Points 0, NRR -0.59
Remaining Matches
- India vs Bangladesh (September 24)
- Pakistan vs Bangladesh (September 25)
- India vs Sri Lanka (September 26)
Team-by-Team Breakdown of the Qualification Scenarios
India’s Path to the Final
India currently holds the strongest position. They have the best net run rate of the three contenders and a match against Bangladesh and a struggling Sri Lankan side still to play. A victory against Bangladesh today would virtually guarantee their spot in the final. Even if they were to face a surprising defeat, their superior NRR provides a crucial buffer, and they would just need to secure a win against Sri Lanka in their final match to stay in the hunt. For all practical purposes, India controls its own destiny.
Pakistan’s Revitalized Campaign
Pakistan’s crucial win over Sri Lanka has breathed new life into their tournament. Their path forward depends heavily on the outcome of today’s match. If India defeats Bangladesh, then the clash between Pakistan and Bangladesh on September 25 becomes a do-or-die virtual semi-final, with the winner advancing to the final. However, if Bangladesh manages to upset India, Pakistan will have to defeat Bangladesh and then wait for the result of the final group match between India and Sri Lanka, where net run rate could become the deciding factor.
Bangladesh’s Challenging Journey
Bangladesh is in perhaps the most intriguing and challenging position. They face the unique prospect of playing two back-to-back matches against two of the tournament’s strongest teams: India and Pakistan, within a span of just 24 hours. A win against India would significantly boost their chances of making the final, but it wouldn’t be guaranteed due to their relatively lower net run rate. To be safe, they would need a decisive victory and would have to ensure Pakistan does not overtake their NRR. A defeat to India, on the other hand, would turn their match against Pakistan into an unmissable knockout battle for a spot in the summit clash.
The Road Ahead
The next 48 hours are set to be a rollercoaster of emotions for fans. Two key scenarios will determine the tournament’s outcome:
- If India beats Bangladesh, the match between Pakistan and Bangladesh will be a straight shootout for the second spot in the final.
- If Bangladesh manages an upset victory over India, the qualification race becomes a complex calculation of net run rate, with the final day’s match potentially deciding which teams make it to the grand finale.