Geneva [Switzerland]: The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) has projected global trade to reach an unprecedented $33 trillion in 2024, marking a $1 trillion increase from 2023. This represents a 3.3% annual growth, signaling the resilience of global trade amid persistent challenges.
Key Drivers of Growth
UNCTAD’s latest Global Trade Update attributes half of the growth to robust expansion in trade services, which grew by 7% in 2023. However, goods trade saw a modest 2% rise, remaining below its 2022 peak.
Developing economies, typically key players in global trade, faced hurdles, including a 1% decline in both imports and South-South trade in Q3 2024. Conversely, advanced economies propelled trade growth, with a 3% increase in imports and a 2% rise in exports driven by stable demand.
Sector-Specific Trends
High-growth sectors such as ICT goods and clothing offered opportunities for diversification, recording growth rates of 13% and 14% respectively in Q3 2024. However, traditional sectors critical to developing economies faced declines:
- Energy trade: Down 2% in Q3 and 7% for the year.
- Metals trade: Contracted by 3%.
- Automotive trade: Fell 3% in Q3 but is expected to post 4% annual growth for 2024.
Future Outlook
Despite ongoing challenges, including slower growth in traditional sectors, stable global economic forecasts and easing inflation are expected to bolster resilience in 2025.
UNCTAD emphasized that developing economies can harness opportunities in high-growth and value-added industries to counterbalance sectoral declines and build sustainable trade strategies for the future.