The Swiss Foreign Ministry announced on Saturday that the United States and Iran will convene in Geneva this week for a second round of indirect talks aimed at curbing Tehran’s nuclear program. The negotiations, hosted by Oman, follow a preliminary meeting held in Muscat on February 6.
The stakes for the Geneva summit have been sharply escalated by President Donald Trump, who warned that a failure to reach an agreement would be “very traumatic” for the Islamic Republic.
Key Obstacles to a Deal
The two nations remain deadlocked on several core issues as they attempt to replace the now-expired 2015 JCPOA framework:
- Enrichment Zero-Tolerance: The Trump administration maintains that Iran can have no uranium enrichment under any new agreement. Iran has categorically rejected this, asserting its right to peaceful nuclear energy.
- Scope of the Deal: While Tehran wants the talks limited to nuclear activity, the U.S. (backed by Israel) is pressing for the inclusion of Iran’s ballistic missile program and the cessation of funding for regional proxy groups like Hezbollah and Hamas.
- Verification Gap: The IAEA has been unable to verify Iran’s nuclear stockpile for months, and while President Masoud Pezeshkian claims readiness for “any kind of verification,” access remains restricted.
“Massive Armada”: Military Pressure Mounts
Coinciding with the diplomatic push, the U.S. is significantly bolstering its military presence in the Middle East. President Trump confirmed Friday that the USS Gerald R. Ford, the world’s largest aircraft carrier, is moving from the Caribbean to join the USS Abraham Lincoln in the region.
“Either we will make a deal or we will have to do something very tough like last time,” Trump told reporters, referencing the June 2025 U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear sites.
Strategic Context: 2025–2026 Timeline
The current crisis follows a volatile 2025, which saw a 12-day war between Israel and Iran and the subsequent capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro by U.S. forces—the operation from which the USS Ford is currently being diverted.
| Date | Event |
| June 2025 | 12-day Israel-Iran war; U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear sites. |
| Oct 2025 | Final expiration of key JCPOA “snapback” provisions. |
| Feb 6, 2026 | First round of indirect talks in Muscat, Oman. |
| Feb 17, 2026 | (Anticipated) Start of second round of talks in Geneva. |
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