SYDNEY – A chilling new report released on Tuesday, January 6, 2026, warns that nearly 6.9 million Australians living on the rapidly expanding outskirts of major cities are in the “firing line” of catastrophic urban wildfires. The study draws a terrifying parallel between Australia’s suburban fringes and the deadly blazes that decimated Los Angeles just one year ago.
The report, co-authored by the Climate Council and a coalition of former Australian fire chiefs, suggests that cities like Sydney, Melbourne, and Perth are currently harboring the exact “preconditions” that led to the California disaster.
The “LA Blueprint” for Disaster
The wildfires that tore through Los Angeles County in January 2025 remain etched in global memory. Those blazes claimed 31 lives and became the world’s costliest wildfires, racking up a staggering $40 billion in insured losses, according to Swiss Re.
Experts warn that Australia is currently mimicking the factors that led to the LA devastation:
- Urban Sprawl: Millions of homes are being built in “interface zones” where residential fences meet highly flammable grasslands and bush.
- Climate Whiplash: Erratic weather patterns—extreme dry spells followed by severe, unpredictable winds—are creating a “perfect storm.”
- Geography: The combination of steep slopes and dense bushland near high-density suburbs is a recipe for high-speed fire spread.
“A Dangerous Mix”: Experts Sound the Alarm
Greg Mullins, the former New South Wales Fire Commissioner and founder of Emergency Leaders for Climate Action, emphasized that the risk is no longer confined to the remote “outback.”
“Nearly every Australian capital city has a dangerous mix of preconditions for a catastrophic fire like LA. We are seeing bushland right against homes in areas with a history of destructive fires. It is critical that we prepare suburban communities for these rising risks now,” Mullins stated.
While Australia is no stranger to fire—vividly remembered through the 2019-2020 Black Summer which scorched 24 million hectares—the new threat is uniquely “urban.” The focus is now on how fire moves through modern suburbs where houses are packed closely together, allowing flames to jump from roof to roof.
The At-Risk Population: By the Numbers
| City | Estimated Residents in High-Risk Fringes | Key Risk Factors |
| Sydney | ~1.8 Million | Steep valleys and dense eucalypt bush. |
| Melbourne | ~2.1 Million | Vast, highly flammable grasslands. |
| Perth | ~1.1 Million | Chronic dry spells and coastal winds. |
| Other Capitals | ~1.9 Million | Combined risk across Brisbane, Adelaide, Hobart. |
A Call for Urgent Policy Shifts
The Climate Council report argues that better firefighting equipment is only a “band-aid” solution. To prevent a Los Angeles-scale tragedy on Australian soil, the report demands:
- Rapid Phasing Out of Fossil Fuels: To curb the extreme weather driving these fires.
- Increased Resilience Funding: Massive investment in disaster preparation specifically for suburban councils.
- Stricter Zoning Laws: Halting the expansion of new residential developments into high-risk “fire-prone” vegetation zones.