As the counting process for the Bihar Assembly Election 2025 gets underway, early trends are starting to stream in, highlighting three dominant themes that are expected to shape the state’s political future.
1. BJP’s Cadre Consolidation
The first major takeaway is the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) appears to be heading toward a potential repeat or even improvement of its 2020 assembly election tally of 74 seats. This strong performance signals a crucial change in Bihar politics: the BJP has successfully managed to consolidate a robust ground-level cadre in a state where political mobilization has traditionally been dominated by mass, freewheeling, personality-driven campaigns.
As political analyst Prabhat Singh observed, “There is no doubt that BJP has put in place a cadre, something that it had lacked all these years.”
2. The Resurgence of Nitish Kumar
The second, and arguably most important, theme is the electoral resilience and likely return of Nitish Kumar as Chief Minister, reinforcing his status as Bihar’s longest-serving head of government. His Janata Dal (United) (JD(U)) looks set to significantly improve on its modest 2020 performance of 43 assembly seats.
Kumar’s continued political success is attributed to his strategic focus on two key voting segments:
- Women Voters: His principal vote bank of women, who turned out in large numbers, remains loyal to his governance and schemes.
- Extreme Backward Classes (EBC): His successful mobilization of the EBC population proves that his long-tested political astuteness and chutzpah are more than intact.
A stronger showing will also enable Nitish Kumar to edge out potential rivals within the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA), such as Chirag Paswan and other smaller caste-based parties, who had complicated his position in the previous election.
Kumar’s political journey—marked by frequent, strategic realignments between the BJP and the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD)—has often earned him the label of a “flip-flopper.” However, these shifts are simultaneously seen as evidence of his unmatched ability to survive and remain relevant in Bihar’s famously unpredictable political environment.
3. Congress Proves Costly for Mahagathbandhan
The third major direction points to significant problems within the opposition Mahagathbandhan (Grand Alliance). The decision to allot over 60 seats to the Congress party, with claims of a supposed “resurgence,” appears to have backfired. The party may end up winning fewer than the 19 seats it secured in 2020.
Furthermore, the revelation that the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and the Congress contested “friendly” fights for approximately 11 seats casts serious doubt on the Congress’s ability to forge and maintain cohesive alliances, suggesting potential long-term consequences for the opposition bloc’s unity and credibility.