Shimla (Himachal Pradesh) [India]: Himachal Pradesh has been reeling under a prolonged dry spell over the past two months, marking October and November as significantly rain-deficient.
According to the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), the last instance of such an exceptionally dry November was in 2016 when no rainfall was recorded across any observatory in the state.
Kuldeep Srivastava, head of IMD Himachal Pradesh, confirmed that the ongoing dry spell mirrors the 2016 scenario, with little to no rainfall reported across the region this November.
“Our records from 2016 show that none of the observatories reported normal rainfall during that November. This year is shaping up similarly, with the state remaining mostly dry. The upcoming forecast also indicates no significant rainfall over the next three to five days,” said Dr Srivastava.
Although there is a possibility of light rainfall on November 23 in higher-altitude areas like Lahaul-Spiti, Chamba, and parts of Kangra, the impact of the current western disturbances remains minimal.
The overall weather across the state is expected to stay clear and sunny during the day, with temperatures dropping further after sunset.
Himachal Pradesh heavily relies on western disturbances for precipitation during the winter months, from November to April. However, the disturbances this season have been weak and have had limited influence on the region.
The IMD noted that the areas most likely to experience any impact include Lahaul-Spiti, Kinnaur, and the higher-altitude regions of Chamba and Kangra, where minor rainfall may occur.
Dr Srivastava elaborated on the broader trend: “The western disturbances currently affecting Himachal Pradesh are quite feeble, and their impact is confined to select high-altitude regions. This explains why the state has experienced prolonged dryness. There are no signs of significant rainfall in the near future.”
The prolonged dry spell has led to a noticeable drop in temperatures across the state. Over the last 20 days, temperatures in Shimla and other regions have fallen by up to 7 degrees Celsius. With winter setting in, further temperature declines are expected.
While daytime conditions are likely to remain sunny, the IMD has forecast foggy conditions around Bhakra Dam and nearby areas like Bilaspur and Hamirpur.
Fog is expected to persist on November 24 and 25 due to moisture availability, following the minor western disturbance on November 23.
Although the current dry spell is not record-breaking, it marks the first such occurrence in eight years.
“This dry November is a rare occurrence. Such conditions haven’t been observed since 2016. The lower Himalayan regions, which are typically influenced by western disturbances, have experienced very little precipitation,” Dr Srivastava stated.
As the state braces for more dry days ahead, the IMD’s observations and forecasts point to the critical role of robust western disturbances in breaking the ongoing dry spell.
Until then, Himachal Pradesh is expected to remain mostly dry, with occasional fog and temperature fluctuations marking the transition into the colder months.