New Delhi [India]: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) announced on Tuesday that the southwest monsoon rainfall over India is expected to be 106% of the Long Period Average (LPA) during the June to September 2025 season—an upward revision from its April forecast of 105%.
The LPA for India’s monsoon rainfall is 868.6 mm, and the current forecast suggests above-normal rainfall for the country as a whole.
Regionally, the IMD predicts:
- Above-normal rainfall in Central India and the South Peninsular region (more than 106% of LPA),
- Normal rainfall in Northwest India (92% to 108% of LPA),
- Below-normal rainfall in Northeast India (less than 94% of LPA).
“During June to September 2025, normal to above normal rainfall is very likely over most parts of the country except some areas of Northwest and East India and many areas of Northeast India where below normal rainfall is very likely,” the IMD said in its statement.
For June 2025, IMD projects above-normal rainfall (>108% of LPA) across most of the country, though below-normal rainfall is likely in southern Peninsular India, parts of Northwest, and Northeast India.
The July 2025 forecast will be issued in the last week of June, according to the IMD.
Since March 2025, India has received 28.3% higher rainfall than average, with 155 mm recorded so far. While Central India and the Southern Peninsula saw excess rainfall, Northwest, East, and Northeast India reported deficient precipitation.
While above-normal rainfall benefits agriculture and replenishes water resources, the IMD cautioned that it also increases risks of flooding, transportation disruptions, public health issues, and damage to ecosystems.
The southwest monsoon officially arrived in Kerala on May 24, nearly a week earlier than the normal onset date of June 1. This marks the earliest onset since 2009. Over the next 2–3 days, conditions are favorable for further advancement of the monsoon into:
- Remaining parts of the central Arabian Sea,
- Some more areas of Maharashtra, Telangana, and Andhra Pradesh,
- Parts of Karnataka, Chhattisgarh, and Odisha,
- Most of west-central and North Bay of Bengal, and
- Remaining northeastern states, West Bengal, and Sikkim.
According to IMD data, the monsoon onset was also early in 2022 (May 29) and 2024 (May 30). IMD has been operationally forecasting the monsoon onset date over Kerala since 2005, with only one incorrect prediction in 2015.
In 2024, India recorded 108% of the LPA for monsoon rainfall, totaling 934.8 mm, the highest in four years.
Above-normal monsoon rains are crucial for Kharif crop sowing, which in turn supports the broader agriculture sector—a key source of livelihood for millions of Indians. Agriculture in India is highly dependent on monsoon rainfall, especially during the Kharif season.